Nicolai Haugsted
Trump’s grocery price boast falls apart after new data emerges.
Donald Trump is once again touting falling grocery prices as evidence that his economic agenda is paying off. Fresh data, however, suggests the picture is much less straightforward than the president describes.
Speaking to Fox News, Trump argued that inflation at the checkout is easing across the board and credited his administration with reversing high prices inherited at the start of his presidency.
“The food, the groceries, it’s all coming down. We’ve done a great job. You know, I think we should be given an A+ on the economy,” Trump said.
Eggs are the exception
Recent Consumer Price Index figures do show a significant decline in egg prices. Between May and June, prices slipped 0.8%, while eggs were nearly 28% cheaper than they were a year earlier.
Economists note, however, that eggs had previously surged to record highs because of widespread avian flu outbreaks, making the recent drop an unusual correction rather than a broader trend.
Most other grocery categories continue moving in the opposite direction.
Meat and produce remain more expensive
Richard Volpe, an agribusiness professor at California Polytechnic State University and former USDA economist, says falling food prices overall remain highly unusual.
“Food prices going down almost never happens,” Volpe said. “But it’s worth reiterating that they are going up both faster than normal and faster than they did last year.”
According to projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, grocery prices are expected to rise roughly 2.7% during 2026, while restaurant and takeaway food could increase by around 3.5%.
Among the biggest increases:
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Beef and veal prices were 11.8% higher in June than a year earlier.
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Fresh vegetables rose 9.9%.
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Pork prices increased 2.4%.
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Fruit prices remain above last year’s levels despite a recent monthly decline.
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Sugary packaged foods and chewing gum are expected to climb another 7.2%.
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Non-alcoholic beverages are forecast to finish the year almost 4% higher.
Small savings, larger increases
Experts also caution against placing too much emphasis on eggs because they represent only a small share of a typical family’s grocery spending.
Beef, fruit and vegetables account for a much larger portion of household food budgets, meaning increases in those categories outweigh savings from cheaper eggs for many consumers.
Volpe estimates that a household spending $100 on groceries last year would now spend between $102.70 and $103.90 for the same basket of goods. For a family spending roughly $1,000 to $1,400 each month on groceries, that translates into approximately $40 in additional monthly costs.
Trump has repeatedly pointed to lower egg prices during recent speeches and interviews, arguing they reflect a broader decline in living costs. Available government data, however, indicates that while eggs have become cheaper, most food categories continue to become more expensive.
