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A sudden U.S. operation in Caracas has sent shockwaves through energy markets, even as traders signal that the disruption may be more targeted than global. Early indicators suggest the real risk lies in a specific corner of the crude market rather than a broad supply shock.
Analysts say the fallout could stretch far beyond oil prices.
Capture and reaction
According to Forbes, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured by U.S. special forces in Caracas early on Jan. 3, following airstrikes and explosions across the capital.
Within hours, tankers in the Caribbean altered course.
By midday, market data showed diesel crack spreads widening, a sign traders were bracing for disruption to heavy sour crude rather than a global shortage.
Venezuela accounts for less than 1% of global oil consumption, but its Merey 16 grade plays an outsized role for certain refineries.
Why crude matters
Forbes reported that Merey 16 feeds refineries equipped with coking capacity, which cannot easily switch to lighter crude grades.
This niche dependency explains why market stress is showing up in specific spreads. Heavy sour barrels are harder to replace due to quality constraints, logistics and sanctions friction.
The result is a localized squeeze rather than a system-wide shock.
China exposure
China is particularly exposed. AidData research cited by Forbes estimates $17–19 billion remains outstanding from China Development Bank’s oil-for-loans program with Venezuela.
CSIS analysis shows Beijing extended more than $60 billion in such loans since 2007, backed by future oil shipments rather than sovereign guarantees.
When Venezuela’s production collapsed earlier in the decade, repayment assumptions weakened, forcing repeated deferrals, according to the Stimson Center.
Trade routes tighten
Reuters data cited by Forbes shows Venezuela exported about 921,000 barrels per day in November 2025, with roughly 80% going to China.
Many cargoes reached China through ship-to-ship transfers or rebranding practices. Reuters previously reported Venezuelan oil being relabeled as “Brazilian” to obscure its origin.
That channel now faces higher risk as U.S. Treasury designations identify vessels by IMO number, reducing plausible deniability.
U.S. and legal fallout
The operation also raises legal and geopolitical questions. Forbes notes critics have compared it to past U.S. unilateral actions, warning of potential strain on relations with Latin America.
Chevron’s joint ventures in Venezuela continue operating under a specific Treasury license, according to NPR, with Reuters data showing about 150,000 bpd shipped to the U.S. in November 2025.
Analysts say every barrel diverted to U.S. refiners tightens supply for Chinese buyers, forcing them into a costlier replacement market.
Sources: Forbes, Reuters, NPR, AidData, CSIS, Stimson Center
