Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
At one point, the ratio was a staggering 27:1.
In late January 2026, The National Interest cited General Sir Roly Walker, the British Army Chief of the General Staff, as saying that the kill ratio in Ukraine is 7 to 1 in Ukraine’s favor.
According to the Ukrainian government-run platform United24Media, UK intelligence at one point even estimated the kill ratio to be 27:1 in the battle for Kupiansk.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine is disclosing how many casualties the sides suffer, but analysts agree that the Russian side is suffering far more than the Ukrainian side.
The latest estimates from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine put the total Russian losses during the soon-to-be four-year-long war at more than 1.25 million personnel. This includes both killed and wounded.
So the million-dollar question is: Can Russia keep replenishing its losses?
Not if simple math is a guideline.
Conscription vs. losses
In late December 2025, Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russia had drafted 403,000 troops in 2025.
This averages 30,000–40,000 new troops each month.
Ukraine has publicly stated that it wants to increase the number of Russian casualties to more than 50,000 per month in 2026, up from the current average of 30,000–35,000.
If Ukraine is able to reach that number, Russian losses will clearly outpace the number of new Russian conscripts.
Cracks in the Kremlin narrative
The Kremlin is pushing a narrative of a Russian victory being inevitable. This is suggested to be a strategy to force Ukraine and the West into making concessions when a possible peace deal is signed.
However, in early December 2025, the Institute for the Study of War assessed that a Russian military victory in Ukraine is neither inevitable nor imminent.
Bloomberg cited Western officials in mid-January as saying that Russian losses exceed what they are able to recruit — averaging monthly casualties of between 30,000 and 35,000 troops.
So if Ukraine is actually able to increase Russian casualties to more than 50,000 troops per month, Putin might find himself in a situation where he has to order a mass mobilization in order to replenish the losses.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, The National Interest, United24Media, Suspilne, General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
