August M
A longtime adviser on US military strategy has warned that the conflict with Iran could become far more complicated than early battlefield successes suggest.
Robert Pape, a political scientist who has advised the US government on security issues for decades, said the situation could place President Donald Trump in a difficult strategic position.
Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago who has advised US administrations since the September 11 attacks, shared his assessment during an appearance on Steven Bartlett’s Diary of a CEO podcast, according to LADbible.
He said that although military strikes can be effective tactically, wars are ultimately shaped by political consequences.
“The problem is, wars are not just about the hardware,” Pape said. “They’re not just about the military operation of putting a bomb on a target…they’re about politics.”
Years of simulations
Pape said he has spent roughly two decades studying and running simulations of a potential conflict between the United States and Iran with his students.
Those exercises examined possible attack plans and strategic targets, including Iranian nuclear sites such as Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan.
According to Pape, US forces could likely strike key facilities with high accuracy using advanced aircraft like the Northrop B-2 Spirit bomber.
He estimated that the chances of successfully hitting major targets would exceed 90 percent.
Hidden nuclear material
Despite that potential military success, Pape warned that the long-term consequences could create new challenges.
He suggested that after initial strikes, Iranian nuclear materials could be moved or dispersed across the country, making it far harder to track or eliminate.
“It could be dispersed anywhere now,” Pape said. “And how many of those are actually developing toward a bomb? We will not know. So what will we do? Regime change.”
Escalation concerns
Pape also argued that the conflict risks spiraling as both sides respond to one another’s actions.
“We’re losing control,” he said. “We are losing control of the situation. And what you were seeing with President Trump is, he’s trying to regain control.”
The strategist said satellite imagery has shown activity near Iranian nuclear facilities, which he believes could indicate preparations to relocate materials.
He warned that Iran may be focusing on resilience and retaliation strategies, which could intensify the confrontation.
Pape concluded that Trump may now be “on the horns of a dilemma,” facing difficult choices about how far the United States should go in the conflict.
Sources: LADbible, Diary of a CEO podcast
