Asger Risom
The first 14 days of the US-Iran conflict generated more than 5 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, driven by destruction, fuel use, and attacks on oil infrastructure — adding new pressure to an already strained global carbon budget.
The war involving the United States, Israel and Iran is not only reshaping the geopolitical landscape — it is also generating a sharp and immediate spike in carbon emissions.
An early analysis cited by The Guardian estimates that the first 14 days of bombing alone produced more than 5 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. That level of emissions, compressed into just two weeks, highlights how modern warfare can rapidly impact the global climate balance.
The environmental cost is not a side effect. It is embedded in how the conflict is being fought.
Destruction and fuel use drive emissions
A large share of the emissions comes from physical destruction.
Based on estimates that around 20,000 civilian buildings have been damaged, emissions linked to destroyed infrastructure account for roughly 2.4 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. The rebuilding process is expected to add further emissions over time.
Fuel consumption is another major factor. Military aircraft, naval forces and support vehicles are estimated to have burned between 150 and 270 million litres of fuel in the first two weeks, generating more than 500,000 tonnes of emissions.
Long-range bombing missions, including flights originating far outside the region, contribute significantly to that total.
Oil infrastructure amplifies the impact
Strikes on energy facilities have produced some of the most visible environmental effects.
Attacks on fuel depots in Tehran triggered large-scale fires, with millions of litres of fuel burning over extended periods. The analysis estimates that between 2.5 and 5.9 million barrels of oil were consumed in such incidents, releasing close to 1.9 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
These events concentrate emissions in short bursts, intensifying their immediate atmospheric impact.
Military hardware and munitions add to the total
Beyond fuel and infrastructure, emissions are also tied to the use and destruction of military equipment.
Losses of aircraft, ships and missile systems contribute what analysts describe as “embodied emissions,” adding an estimated 172,000 tonnes of CO2 equivalent. The production and deployment of thousands of missiles, drones and interceptor systems add tens of thousands of tonnes more.
Individually, these sources are smaller, but together they form part of the overall footprint of the conflict.
A compressed climate impact
In total, emissions from the first phase of the war are estimated at just over 5 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
Scaled over a full year, that would place the conflict’s emissions on par with those of a mid-sized, fossil-fuel-dependent economy. The two-week total alone is comparable to the combined annual emissions of dozens of lower-emitting countries.
Researchers warn that the figure is likely to rise if the conflict continues, particularly as energy infrastructure remains a target.
Conflict and climate pressures converge
The findings come as global carbon budgets are already under strain.
Climate scientists estimate that the remaining emissions allowance to limit warming to 1.5°C could be exhausted within the next few years at current rates. Sudden spikes driven by conflict add further pressure to that timeline.
There are also longer-term effects. Disruptions to energy markets have historically led to increased fossil fuel investment, as countries seek to stabilize supply.
That dynamic could extend the climate impact of the conflict well beyond the battlefield.
Sources: Digi24, The Guardian, Institute for Climate and Community
