Asger Risom
A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could do more than drive oil prices higher — it may disrupt the complex global supply chains that keep medicines flowing to the United States.
A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is raising concerns far beyond oil markets, with experts warning it could disrupt the supply of medicines in the United States.
While the connection may seem indirect, global pharmaceutical supply chains are deeply tied to energy flows and shipping routes in the Gulf — making the ongoing conflict a growing risk for drug availability and pricing.
A hidden dependency in the supply chain
Nearly half of all generic drugs used in the U.S. come from India, accounting for roughly 47% of supply by volume. But India’s pharmaceutical industry depends heavily on energy imports that pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Around 40% of India’s oil imports flow through the narrow waterway. That oil is essential not just for energy, but for the petrochemical industry that produces key ingredients used in drug manufacturing.
Even when raw materials originate elsewhere, including China, production often still relies on petrochemical inputs tied to Gulf energy supplies. Many of these materials also move through logistics hubs in the region before reaching manufacturers.
The result is a supply chain where disruptions in one chokepoint can quickly ripple across continents.
Why generic drugs are most at risk
Generic medicines — which account for around 90% of prescriptions in the U.S. — are especially vulnerable to disruptions.
Their low profit margins leave little room to absorb rising costs from fuel, transport, or raw materials. Even modest increases can force manufacturers to scale back production or pass costs onto buyers.
Several widely used substances are directly tied to petroleum. Ingredients like glycerin and phenol, used in everything from painkillers to everyday treatments, depend on oil-derived inputs.
Experts warn that prolonged disruption could lead to higher prices or shortages, particularly for high-demand medications such as antibiotics, diabetes treatments, and blood pressure drugs.
Early warning signs are already emerging
There are already indications that supply chains are coming under strain.
Air cargo rates from India have surged by as much as 200% to 350% on some routes, reflecting growing logistical pressure. Shipping delays and rerouting are also increasing the risk for temperature-sensitive medicines that require strict cold-chain conditions.
Because many distributors operate on a just-in-time inventory model, shortages could begin to appear within four to six weeks if disruptions persist.
That said, the system is not yet under immediate threat. Most companies maintain buffer stocks lasting between 30 and 60 days, with some manufacturers holding reserves for several months.
For now, pharmacies in the U.S. report normal operations — but the longer the conflict continues, the greater the risk that disruptions will begin to reach consumers.
Sources: CNBC, RELEX Solutions, Infios, University of Nevada Las Vegas School of Medicine, UCLA
