Nicolai Haugsted
Alaska’s election could still produce a major surprise as nearly a quarter of the votes remain uncounted.
The 2026 midterm elections have delivered major political changes across the United States, with Democrats celebrating significant victories and Republicans confronting the consequences of a difficult election night.
But while much of the country has already moved on to discussing the results, voters in Alaska are still waiting to discover who will represent them.
Several important races remain unresolved, including a closely contested Senate election that could have significant implications for the balance of power in Washington. And despite growing national interest in the outcome, Anchorage Daily News via. election officials are warning that the wait could continue for more than another week.
The reason is not necessarily a problem with the election itself. Alaska’s enormous geography, complicated postal arrangements and distinctive voting system mean that determining the winners can take considerably longer than in most other states.
Nearly a quarter of the votes are still missing from the count
According to the Alaska Division of Elections, officials had counted 215,912 ballots when the latest figures were published on Wednesday.
However, that number represents only part of the expected total.
Approximately 20,000 early votes cast during the final days before Election Day still need to be processed, alongside roughly 40,000 absentee ballots received by election officials.
Together, those outstanding ballots could account for approximately a quarter of the eventual vote.
That is a substantial number in a state where several candidates are separated by relatively narrow margins.
The ballots counted so far include votes cast on Election Day, earlier advance votes and a portion of absentee ballots.
For candidates currently celebrating narrow leads, the remaining votes could make those celebrations rather premature.
Election officials expect to release another substantial batch of results on November 9 or 10, potentially adding tens of thousands of ballots to the totals.
But some races may remain undecided until November 18, when the final overseas absentee ballots must arrive and the state’s ranked-choice counting process is scheduled to take place.
A Senate race separated by just 637 votes
The contest attracting particular attention is the battle for Alaska’s seat in the US Senate.
Democratic former Representative Mary Peltola is challenging incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in a race that remains exceptionally close.
According to the latest figures cited in the report, Peltola has received approximately 48 percent of the vote, compared with Sullivan’s 47.7 percent.
That leaves the Democrat ahead by just 637 votes.
With tens of thousands of ballots still awaiting counting, neither candidate can reasonably claim victory.
The situation is further complicated by the presence of two additional candidates.
Republican Gerald Heikes has received 4,846 votes, representing approximately 2.3 percent of the total.
Meanwhile, Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired educator who shares the incumbent senator’s surname, has secured around 3,600 votes, or 1.7 percent.
Although neither minor candidate is currently close to winning, their supporters could ultimately influence the outcome.
That is because Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, allowing voters to indicate which candidates they prefer if their first choice is eliminated.
Both major campaigns have examined the available voting data and argued that the figures offer them a possible route to victory.
However, the information remains incomplete, making confident predictions difficult.
Alaska’s unusual voting system could decide the winner
Unlike most American states, Alaska allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference during general elections.
The system becomes particularly important when no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the initial vote.
Under those circumstances, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated.
Ballots cast for that candidate are then transferred to the next remaining candidate preferred by each voter.
The process continues until someone secures a majority.
For the Senate contest, that means supporters of Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan could eventually help determine whether Peltola or the incumbent Sullivan wins.
Predicting those transfers is not straightforward.
Some Alaskans rank candidates from different political parties, meaning votes do not necessarily move from one Republican to another.
Additionally, election officials do not yet have complete ranking information from every polling location.
Many rural communities lack ballot scanners capable of immediately recording voters’ full rankings, so preliminary results from those areas contain only first-choice totals.
Consequently, even sophisticated attempts to predict the final ranked-choice outcome remain subject to considerable uncertainty.
Democrats are also watching the governor’s race
The Senate contest is not the only statewide election awaiting a definitive result.
Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has taken an early lead in the race for governor, securing approximately 49 percent of the vote against three Republican opponents.
His position has attracted attention because a Democratic victory would represent another significant political gain following the party’s strong national performance.
However, with a substantial number of ballots outstanding and ranked-choice tabulation still ahead, the final outcome remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, Republican Representative Nick Begich has moved ahead in the race for Alaska’s seat in the US House.
Begich has approximately 49.5 percent of the vote, compared with 40.3 percent for independent challenger Bill Hill.
Although Begich currently holds a more comfortable advantage than the candidates in the Senate race, the final result has not yet been established.
The outstanding votes could still affect the contest, particularly if ranked-choice transfers become necessary.
Alaska’s geography makes election night a logistical challenge
The delay in determining Alaska’s election winners is not unusual.
America’s largest state presents logistical challenges that are difficult to compare with those elsewhere in the country.
Numerous communities are accessible only by aircraft or boat, while harsh weather conditions can disrupt transportation and postal deliveries.
Election materials from remote settlements sometimes take days to reach regional processing centers.
Alaska also allows voters to request absentee ballots without providing a specific reason.
During the 2024 presidential election, more than 51,000 of the state’s approximately 340,000 ballots were submitted by mail.
State law gives absentee ballots additional time to arrive after Election Day, provided they meet the relevant mailing requirements.
Ballots mailed domestically must reach election officials within 10 days, while those sent from overseas have up to 15 days.
The extended deadlines are designed to ensure that residents of remote communities and Alaskans living abroad are not disadvantaged by circumstances beyond their control.
But the arrangement also means that election officials cannot complete the count immediately after polling stations close.
Hundreds of absentee ballots have already been rejected
Postal delays are not the only challenge facing election administrators.
Absentee ballots must also undergo additional verification before they can be included in the official count.
Unlike ballots cast at polling stations, where voters’ identities are checked before voting, absentee ballots are verified after they arrive.
Voters must provide identifying information, such as their date of birth or the final four digits of their Social Security number.
Their ballots must also contain the required signatures, including that of a witness.
According to the election division, 570 absentee ballots had already been rejected among the more than 40,000 received but not yet counted.
Problems with absentee ballots have previously affected Alaska elections.
During the 2024 general election, officials rejected 1,303 absentee ballots, with insufficient or improper witness information accounting for many of the rejections.
Similar difficulties emerged during the August 2026 primary, when dozens of ballots mailed from rural communities arrived too late to be counted.
Approximately one in 30 absentee ballots submitted during that primary was rejected because of procedural problems, with late postmarks representing the most common reason.
State lawmakers previously attempted to address some of these issues through election reform legislation.
The proposed changes included a procedure allowing voters to correct minor mistakes, such as missing signatures, rather than automatically losing their votes.
However, Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy vetoed the legislation.
When will Alaska finally announce the winners?
Election officials have outlined several important dates that should gradually clarify the results.
The next major update is scheduled for November 9 or 10, when additional early votes and absentee ballots are expected to enter the count.
Another update is planned for Friday, November 13, which is also the deadline for domestic absentee ballots to arrive.
Wednesday, November 18, is expected to be particularly important. By that date, overseas absentee ballots must have reached election officials, and ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for contests where no candidate has secured an outright majority.
That process could finally determine the winners of Alaska’s most closely contested races.
The state is then targeting November 25 for official certification of the election results.
Former election officials have suggested that Alaska could speed up future counts by allowing absentee ballots to be processed and scanned before Election Day, alongside introducing more electronic verification procedures.
For now, however, candidates and voters must work within the existing system.
The outstanding ballots mean that Alaska could still deliver some important political surprises long after most Americans have finished following election night.
And with only 637 votes separating the leading Senate candidates in the latest reported count, the final result could depend on ballots that have yet to complete their journey through one of America’s most geographically challenging election systems.
