Analysis: Why a U.S. invasion of Venezuela is unlikely – but not completely impossible

U.S. enforcement of sanctions on Venezuela is entering a more confrontational phase, as Reuters reports that the United States is preparing to intercept additional ships carrying Venezuelan oil, escalating pressure on President Nicolas Maduro after the seizure of a tanker earlier this week.

Reuters cited six people familiar with the matter for saying, Washington is weighing further interdictions as part of a broader effort to tighten enforcement of sanctions imposed on Venezuela since 2019.

The move follows Wednesday’s U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan oil cargo, a step that signals a sharper phase in the campaign against Caracas, Reuters reported.

Military signals mount

The tanker seizure coincided with a growing U.S. military presence in the southern Caribbean, fueling speculation about Washington’s intentions.

Images circulating on social media show new aircraft and personnel arriving at U.S. bases in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Article continues below.

Reuters photographs also depict sizable contingents of U.S. troops already on the ground in Puerto Rico.

A video that went viral on Wednesday appeared to show U.S. forces boarding and seizing the beforementioned tanker off Venezuela’s coast.

The seizure is highly controversial, seizing tankers is legally sensitive primarily due to complex questions of jurisdiction and sovereignty under international law.

Article continues below.

Operation Southern Spear

The military buildup comes as the Pentagon advances Operation Southern Spear, an initiative announced in mid-November by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Axios reported at the time.

The plan is publicly framed as an effort to counter Venezuelan drug trafficking, but officials have acknowledged it could involve a range of actions, potentially including a ground strike.

The scope of the operation has added to regional anxiety, even as U.S. officials stop short of detailing specific military objectives.

His days “are numbered”

In a recent interview with Politico, President Donald Trump said Maduro’s days “are numbered,” without laying out a clear strategy for Venezuela.

He declined to rule out a ground invasion and suggested he might also use force against Mexico and Colombia, remarks that intensified concerns across the region.

But despite the rhetoric, analysts and officials say an American invasion of Venezuela remains unlikely – although not impossible.

Logistical nightmare

Politico notes, there is no large U.S. ground force positioned nearby, and moving one would require a major, visible logistical effort.

Airstrikes are seen as a more plausible option, though even that remains uncertain.

Speaking to Politico, Republican lawmakers, Pentagon officials and White House advisers suggest Trump’s threats are meant to coerce, not invade.

“This has a 99.9 percent chance of not happening. But leaving that .01 percent chance on the table will bring people to the table,” said one person close to the White House according to Politico.

Another described the warnings as “a designed strategy to pressure Maduro to leave.”

Additionally, a military intervention in Venezuela would go against Donald Trumps election promise about not to get the U.S. involved in any more foreign wars.

But if the first and second Trump-administration has taught us anything, it is that .01 percent is enough for something unprecedented to happen.

Sources: The Independent, Reuters, Politico, X, Axios, Time Magazine

This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, who may have used AI in the preparation