August M
Public opinion data from Russia reveals a contradiction that helps explain why the war in Ukraine grinds on.
While many Russians say they want peace, their understanding of what peace means leaves the Kremlin with little realistic room to maneuver.
Numbers tell story
Polling by the independent Levada Center, cited by Wiadomości, shows that 76% of Russians continue to support the military’s actions in Ukraine. This reflects a high level of acceptance for the war itself, despite mounting losses and economic pressure.
At the same time, 61% of respondents say they favor peace talks. On the surface, this suggests openness to de-escalation. But that impression fades when the questions turn to substance rather than slogans.
Peace without compromise
According to the same survey, 59% of respondents support intensifying attacks on Ukraine if negotiations fail, while only 20% are willing to accept concessions.
The data suggests that for much of Russian society, peace is defined not as compromise but as victory.
Wiadomości notes that talks are acceptable to many Russians only if they advance Moscow’s war goals. Anything short of that risks being perceived as defeat.
Propaganda’s limits
This public mood has direct political consequences. Analysts cited by Wiadomości argue that Vladimir Putin has become constrained by the narrative his own system promoted for years. The war has been framed as an existential struggle with the West and with “Nazi” Ukraine.
In such a context, even a tactical step back would amount to admitting that the broader state project has failed. Any Russian leader pursuing compromise would likely face accusations of betraying national interests, with potential challengers waiting in the wings.
Support without sacrifice
The Russian case also exposes another paradox. Strong declarative support for the war does not translate into a willingness to bear its costs. Despite high bonuses, benefits, and promises of social advancement, the Kremlin continues to struggle with manpower shortages.
Recruitment pressure falls disproportionately on poorer, less politically influential regions. Authorities remain cautious about large-scale mobilization in Moscow and St. Petersburg, where unrest could threaten regime stability.
Trapped by expectations
As Wiadomości argues, Russian leaders have become both architects and prisoners of war sentiment. Public expectations have been set at maximum objectives, while demographic, economic, and military constraints continue to grow.
The conflict persists not because diplomacy is absent, but because reversing course would require a long and risky effort to persuade society that compromise is not failure, and that strength can survive without victory.
Sources: Wiadomości, Levada Center
