Kenneth Glad
It is easy to assume that allies always find a way to stay close. When ties fray on one side of an ocean, looking across the other feels like the most natural move in the world. Yet shifting an entire nation’s orbit is never as simple as it looks on paper.
Canada and Europe are enjoying a fast-moving political honeymoon. At a leaders’ summit in Montreal, top European officials floated the idea of an associate membership for the country.
A joint statement from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and EU Council President António Costa called for an “ever closer association” that will lead to “a more active foreign and security policy partnership,” according to The Conversation.
Culture is already moving along with the politics. Canada announced in July that it will enter the Eurovision song contest, becoming the first newcomer since Australia joined in 2015.
The timing could hardly be better for a musical debut. With television viewers often casting votes based on geopolitical friendships, Canada might just ride this wave of affection all the way to the winner’s podium.
An old pattern
Still, this dance has happened before. History shows that whenever Ottawa tries to pivot toward Europe, grand promises tend to evaporate into thin air.
Back in 1959, Prime Minister John Diefenbaker feared losing the American market for uranium. Seeking fresh buyers, he signed an atomic pact with Europe, but aggressive American competition quickly shut Canada out of the race.
The story repeated itself in the 1970s. After President Richard Nixon slapped surprise tariffs on imports, Pierre Trudeau tried to build a trade counterweight across the Atlantic. European leaders wanted Canadian energy, but the resulting cooperation deal never fulfilled its early promise.
Instead of breaking away, Canada turned right back south and signed a sweeping free trade agreement with the United States in the 1980s.
The road ahead
Today, the pressure is on once more. Cut off from Russian supplies and facing climate deadlines, Europe desperately needs Canadian oil, gas, and uranium. With fossil fuels weaponized across the globe, Western leaders are racing to rewire their fragile supply chains before the next energy shock hits home.
Canada stands out as an obvious life raft, boasting vast, stable deposits that European factories and grids can rely on. Yet moving these resources across the Atlantic requires deep infrastructure commitments, heavy capital, and a shared long-term strategy that outlasts the current election cycle.
Friendly songs and warm summit speeches may feel encouraging. But if the past seventy years prove anything, it is that lasting transatlantic integration takes far more than shared values to stick.
When the immediate geopolitical panic fades and the balance sheets come due, lofty diplomatic promises often collapse under the weight of distance and domestic politics.
