Camilla Jessen
A new poll shows which former president voters would pick.
It’s a race that could never legally happen.
But if it did, new polling shows which former president voters would pick.
A Showdown That Lives Only in Theory
Imagine Donald Trump and Barack Obama going head-to-head on a 2028 presidential ballot.
While legally impossible due to term limits, the idea continues to stir public curiosity and political chatter.
The Constitutional Block
The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution prohibits any president from serving more than two terms.
That makes a Trump vs. Obama contest impossible under current law, though that hasn’t stopped speculation or hypothetical polling.
Trump Hints at a Third Term — Again
Despite the clear legal barrier, Trump hasn’t ruled out testing the limits.
In April 2025, he was asked how he’d feel about a race against Obama.
“I’d love that,” he replied, adding, “There are methods [through] which you could do it.”
It’s not the first time he’s suggested extending his time in office. Earlier this year, he said: “A lot of people want me to do it… but it’s far too early to think about.”
New Poll Pits Two Political Giants
Even though the matchup is fictional, The Daily Mail and J.L. Partners surveyed 1,013 registered voters to find out what Americans would do if both men were on the ballot in 2028.
The result: Barack Obama led Donald Trump by 11 points.
- 52% would vote for Obama
- 41% would vote for Trump
Demographic Breakdown
The numbers are even more revealing when broken down by key voting groups:
- 73% of Hispanic voters supported Obama
- 68% of Black voters chose Obama over Trump
This suggests the former president still holds strong appeal across broad segments of the electorate.
Obama Outshines Other Democrats
Interestingly, the poll also found that Obama was the only recent Democrat to outperform Trump.
In similar matchups involving Hillary Clinton or Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump held the lead.
Their Political Legacies Are Deeply Intertwined
Obama served two terms between 2009 and 2017, while Trump followed in 2016, lost reelection in 2020, and returned to power in 2024.
Their contrasting leadership styles, political coalitions, and visions for America have shaped national discourse for nearly two decades, but they’ve never actually shared a ballot.
Changing the Law?
Even if Trump pursued a third term, the legal path is practically impossible.
Amending the Constitution requires support from two-thirds of Congress and ratification by 38 state legislatures.
That scenario is more far-fetched than the poll itself.
What This Says About 2028
With both men constitutionally sidelined from a 2028 run, the field remains open.
But their enduring presence in the minds of voters suggests that future candidates — from either party — may continue to campaign in the shadows of Obama and Trump.
