Edith Hejberg
In a CNBC interview, Trump vowed to “substantially” increase tariffs on Indian goods within 24 hours over the oil issue.
The U.S. president’s patience is wearing thin. Trump now wants India to stop buying Russian oil and he’s ready to raise tariffs to force Modi’s hand.
Trump’s Tariff Threats
He had already imposed a minimum 25% tariff last week, but this fresh threat ramps up the pressure. The move marks a sharp turn in a relationship once defined by mutual praise.
Why Russian Oil Matters to India
India, the world’s most populous nation, is the third‑largest oil consumer and still growing fast. Russian crude supplies 36% of its imports, making Moscow its top supplier.
As millions of Indian households join the middle class, demand for petrol is surging and cheap Russian oil keeps the economy moving.
Bargain Crude and Limited Options
India buys Russian oil at deep discounts, a deal it can’t easily replicate elsewhere. Cutting Russia out would leave a supply gap too large for other producers, like OPEC, to fill quickly.
U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela have already shut down two of India’s previous oil sources, narrowing its options further.
A Global Price Shock Risk
If India stopped importing Russian crude, the global oil market could be thrown into turmoil. Competing with Western buyers for Middle Eastern oil would likely push up prices everywhere including in the U.S.
That’s why, until now, Western nations have quietly tolerated India’s purchases despite their tough talk.
The Loophole That Benefits the West
Some Russian crude shipped to India is refined there and then sold on to Europe, the U.S., and the UK.
Because sanctions target Russian oil but not products refined outside Russia, this trade is legal. In 2023, India became the world’s second‑largest exporter of petroleum products, earning over $86 billion.
Beyond Oil: A Longstanding Alliance
India and Russia’s strategic ties run deep. During the Cold War, India tilted toward Moscow when the U.S. backed Pakistan.
Russia supplied weapons, military technology, and political support and remains India’s biggest arms supplier today. Those decades of trust are not easily undone.
Modi’s Moscow Connection
Modi has kept relations warm with Putin, even visiting Moscow last year in a gesture that drew criticism from the West.
The two leaders were seen embracing and driving together, imagery that underscores India’s unwillingness to fully align with Western demands against Russia.
Trump and Modi: From Allies to Adversaries?
Trump once called himself India’s “best friend” in the White House. But tensions have risen in his second term.
Modi resents Trump’s public claims of credit for an India‑Pakistan ceasefire and his accusations that Indian oil purchases fund Russia’s war in Ukraine. The personal chemistry is cooling fast.
The Road Ahead
Analysts say India won’t give up Russian oil anytime soon. Instead, Modi will continue buying discounted crude while gradually expanding imports from the Middle East. For now,
Delhi appears ready to weather Trump’s tariff threats, betting that its economic clout and the West’s need for stable oil prices will keep the confrontation from spiralling.
