Asger Risom
Michael Burry, the investor best known for predicting the 2008 housing crash, has resurfaced with a new warning for one of the most-watched companies in the world.
Michael Burry, the investor best known for predicting the 2008 housing crash, has resurfaced with a new warning for one of the most-watched companies in the world. In a post on his newly launched Substack, he revealed he is once again betting against Tesla — a move that immediately sparked attention across markets that have watched the stock swing sharply this year.
Burry argues Tesla’s valuation has gone too far
In his post, Burry wrote that Tesla’s market value has drifted far beyond reality. He said the company continues to dilute shareholders because of its heavy reliance on stock-based compensation, estimating annual dilution at more than three percent with no share buybacks to counter it.
He also pointed to Elon Musk’s enormous 2025 pay package, approved by shareholders last month, as a major risk. The plan could award Musk tens of millions — potentially even hundreds of millions — of Tesla shares if he hits certain goals. That increase would boost Musk’s stake from around 15% today to nearly 30%, while existing investors would see their ownership shrink further.
Musk’s pay plan could shift who benefits most
According to reporting from Fortune, some of the performance milestones tied to Musk’s compensation are considered relatively achievable. If Musk clears them, Burry argues, the CEO could end up benefiting more from the company’s success than many shareholders who voted in favor of the plan.
Tesla shares traded around $426 on Monday, dipping slightly after Burry’s comments were published but still up for the year following a rebound from earlier losses.
Burry takes aim at what he calls the “Elon cult”
Beyond the numbers, Burry criticized what he described as a shifting narrative around Tesla’s priorities. He said the company’s most vocal supporters have repeatedly moved from one vision to the next — electric cars, then autonomous driving, and now robots — each time competition begins to catch up.
A history with Tesla — and not the consensus on Wall Street
This isn’t Burry’s first attempt to short Tesla. He briefly bet against the company in 2021, taking a position worth hundreds of millions of dollars before exiting the trade. Based on the timing of that move, Scion Asset Management likely took a loss on the position, though Burry has never publicly confirmed the outcome.
Despite his renewed skepticism, most analysts remain supportive of Tesla. Roughly three-quarters of Wall Street ratings still fall into the buy or hold category, and longtime Tesla bull Dan Ives recently reaffirmed his confidence in Musk and the company’s direction following the approval of the CEO’s pay package.
Musk’s long memory for short-sellers
Musk has a history of going after investors who bet against his company. When he learned Bill Gates held a significant short position several years ago, the Microsoft cofounder later recalled that Musk was “super mean” to him. Musk has continued to criticize Gates publicly, recently warning on X that if Gates had not closed the position by now, he should do so quickly.
Burry’s new short puts him back in a familiar place: standing against one of the most influential companies — and one of the most unpredictable CEOs — in tech.
Sources: michaeljburry.substack.com/, Fortune, X
