Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Russia’s fuel backbone has become one of the war’s main battlefields in 2026.
For months, Ukrainian long-range drones have picked off refineries, pumping stations, and storage depots across European Russia, with each strike reported as an isolated incident.
On Thursday, Kyiv tried to pull those incidents together into a single number.
Fifteen of Russia’s 38 major oil refineries, nearly 40% of its principal refining network, are now inoperable, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence agency (HUR) said in a statement published at midday on November 5.
Another 12 facilities have reduced output, and combined refining volumes at the affected plants have fallen by 55.4% compared with the start of the year.
The HUR tally covers the situation at the end of September and puts the cumulative economic hit on Russia’s oil sector at more than $23.2 billion, a figure that is approaching the industry’s reported revenue for all of 2025 of $26.6 billion.
The five hardest-hit plants
HUR named the facilities taking the heaviest damage as Slavneft-YANOS in Yaroslavl, Kirishinefteorgsintez in Leningrad Oblast, the Ryazan Oil Refining Company, Gazprom Neft’s Moscow refinery, and Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez. Together, those five plants account for roughly 33% of Russia’s total oil refining capacity.
The intelligence directorate added that Russia is no longer able to meet domestic demand for fuel while also honoring its export contracts, and that Russian buyers have begun importing petroleum products through so-called gray schemes to get around international sanctions.
HUR also pointed to a decree signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 28, No. 686, which restricts public disclosure of oil refining data and makes independent monitoring of output almost impossible.
Fifth refinery hit in a week
The tally landed hours after a fresh strike on one of the plants on that list. Ukrainian drones attacked the Rosneft-owned Ryazan refinery overnight on Thursday, starting fires at the facility and at a nearby Wildberries logistics hub, according to Kyiv Post.
Ryazan Oblast Governor Pavel Malkov confirmed the strike, saying fires broke out at industrial sites, power lines were damaged, and one person was injured by falling debris.
The refinery, among Russia’s three largest, processes more than 17 million metric tons of crude oil a year and produces gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, and bitumen, supplying Moscow and central Russian regions.
The Ryazan hit is the fifth Russian refinery strike in a week, Euromaidan Press reported, following attacks on Novokuibyshevsk on October 30, Bashneft-Novoil in Ufa on October 31, Lukoil’s Kstovo plant on November 1, and Slavneft-YANOS on November 3.
The pace resumed after a roughly two-week pause in refinery strikes that, according to a Wall Street Journal report cited by Euromaidan Press, reflected US pressure on Kyiv to hold off until after the November 3 US midterm elections.
What it means for fuel and sanctions
Russia’s refineries supply both the domestic market and the military logistics chain feeding operations in Ukraine. According to Russian independent outlet Astra, cited by Euromaidan Press, the Ryazan plant supplies the Russian army and produces TS-1 jet fuel.
For US and European observers tracking sanctions pressure, the HUR figures offer a rare public yardstick for the cumulative weight of the drone campaign. The $23.2 billion damage estimate sits alongside separate OSINT assessments that three of last week’s targets, Kstovo, Novokuibyshevsk, and the Ufa complex, between them handle about 10% of Russia’s refining and more than 10% of its diesel production.
