Kathrine Frich
As Russia’s war in Ukraine drags into its fourth year, fears are mounting in nearby countries that they could be next.
Ukraine’s early losses, with over 50,000 square miles seized within months of the 2022 invasion, shook the region.
Why the Baltics Are on High Alert
For Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, small NATO members bordering Russia, the message is clear: they may not have time to react if conflict spreads.
All three Baltic states were once under Soviet control and are now building what’s being dubbed the “Baltic Defence Line.”
The goal is to prepare not just politically or diplomatically but physically, with bunkers, anti-tank ditches, and explosive-ready bridges.
Lithuania Builds a First Line of Defence
Lithuania, which shares borders with both Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave and Belarus, is leading the charge.
Its 30-mile-deep defence zone includes minefields, hidden bunkers, and bridge demolitions.
It’s not just about blocking troops, officials say, but slowing them down enough to fight back effectively.
The country has no illusions about what’s at stake. Former Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis warned, “Russians could move through the whole country in hours.”
A Multi-Layered Approach to Survival
Lithuania’s plans don’t stop with fortifications. It’s coordinating closely with NATO and neighbouring allies to develop a united front.
The defence line will eventually span across all three Baltic countries, from Kaliningrad in the west to the Narva River in the east.
The line is expected to include 1,000 concrete bunkers, anti-tank traps, and extensive logistics networks.
Estimated to cost around £60 million per country, the project is seen as a necessary investment in national survival.
Latvia Fortifies Its Eastern Border
Latvia, like its southern neighbour, has begun reinforcing its eastern border with Russia and Belarus.
Officials are constructing defences designed not only to block advances, but to funnel invaders into predictable zones where resistance forces can gain the upper hand.
Military planners describe the tactic as “canalisation”, channeling attackers into kill zones.
The strategy borrows lessons from Ukraine’s experience and reflects the limited strategic depth Latvia has to offer.
Preparing for the Worst
What makes Latvia’s position especially tense is the growing belief that a ceasefire in Ukraine could spark fresh aggression elsewhere.
Landsbergis has warned that the most dangerous moment for the Baltics may come after peace talks begin.
If Russia sees a frozen front in Ukraine as a chance to move westward, Latvia could be a prime target.
The government is therefore speeding up defence construction and expanding military readiness across the country.
Estonia Joins the Regional Defence Effort
Estonia, the northernmost of the three Baltic states, is completing the chain. Its strategic location along the Gulf of Finland makes it vital to NATO’s Baltic defence posture.
Like its neighbours, Estonia is building fortifications and preparing for asymmetric warfare.
The government has made no effort to hide its preparations.
Transparency is part of the deterrence strategy, letting Russia know that any incursion will be met with resistance from day one.
Officials hope this will help prevent the worst from happening in the first place.
NATO Backing and Baltic Resolve
Despite their small size, the Baltic states are showing big resolve. While each nation is spending tens of millions on defences, they are also leaning heavily on NATO to reinforce the region.
Joint military drills like Steadfast Defender and Iron Wolf are becoming more frequent.
The unspoken fear remains that even with all this preparation, the Baltics could be overrun quickly in the event of an attack.
That’s why they’re not waiting for help, they’re digging in now, building trenches, and laying explosives while there’s still time.
