Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
It’s all speculation, but these points will undoubtebly make a difference for the Ukrainian effort.
It’s all speculation, but these points will undoubtebly make a difference for the Ukrainian effort.
Trump: “Ukraine can win all territory back”
After a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in New York on Sept. 23, Donald Trump said he now believes Ukraine can retake all territories occupied by Russia.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the economic toll on Russia, combined with EU and NATO support, puts Ukraine “in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.”
“Original borders are an option,” says Trump
Trump emphasized that, with “time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and NATO,” Ukraine’s return to its original borders is a real possibility.
He described Russia’s war efforts as “aimless,” now entering their fourth year without clear progress.
Ukraine’s biggest needs
To be able to take back all the lost territory, Ukraine needs to break the stalemate on the battlefield.
How this will be done is up for debate, but there are some things that seem paramount for Ukraine to be able to go on the offensive.
Disclaimer
We are not military experts, and we don’t know the details about the situation on the ground.
The list is made from an analysis of what Ukraine says they need as well as speculations based on battlefield reports from sources like he Institute for the Study of War.
1. Continued, and increased, aid
Zelenskiy said earlier this month, that nearly 60 % of Ukrainian arms used in the defense against Russia is home-produced.
This stands in stark contrast to te beginning of the war, where Ukraine relied on donated weapons in order to withstand the Russian agression.
That being said, Ukraine cannot produce everything they need domestically.
Long-distance weapons needed
HIMARS- and Patriot-systems are needed to protect the civilian population, as well as being able to strike Russian targets from a distance.
Last week, Zelenskiy confirmed that Ukraine will receive HIMARS- and Patriot-systems as part of a NATO-allies financed US weapons aid package.
2. More troops
According to Novaya Gazeta, Ukraine is running out of fighters.
Even though the Ukrainian fighters have proven very resourceful, courageous and resilient, they are limited in numbers compared to the Russian war machine.
And even thogh modern warfare has proven to be fought mainly with drones, soldiers are still needed.
Foreign volunteers needed
The Coalition of Willing are discussing boots on the ground as part of the security guarantees for Ukraine at some point in the future, but the Ukrainian defense need manpower now.
One way of doing this is by the Coalition to support Ukraine by lending the war-torn country political, legal and financial support in recruiting volunteers – either from their own countries or other nations.
3. The China-Russia-relation
China continues to buy massive amounts of oil from Russia, basically financing the Russian war machine.
Furthermore, China has continued to deny any involvement in the conflict, even though Ukraine claims China is providing Russia with goods needed to keep the invasion going.
Xi Jinping needs to say stop
Speaking at the UN Security Council, where both Russia and China are permanent members, Zelenskiy sayd that China has the power to make Russia stop the war.
“If China really wants the war to stop, they could force Russia to stop the invasion. Without China, Putin’s Russia is nothing,” Zelenskiy said.
4. Control of airspace
Russia continues to rain down drones and missiles over Ukraine, targeting both military infrastructure as well as civilians.
This is one of Ukraine’s biggest challenges, as the Ukrainian air defence is fighting around the clock, but still come up short against the hundreds of drones, Russia is launching in each swarm.
NATO reconsidering closing airspace
After being attacked by Russian drones earlier in September, Poland has reopened the discussion about a NATO-led shutdown of Ukrainian airspace.
The idea has been floated before, but after the violation of NATO-airspace, discussion have reignited.
5. Massive investments
Ukraine wants to join NATO, but this seems like a lost cause, at least at the moment.
Instead, Ukraine is trying to bolster it’s own defense industry by investing heavily, but the domestic investments are not enough.
Need Western money
Western allies are already investing heavily in the Ukrainian defense industry, and Denmark has agreed for Ukraine to set up a production plant for rocket fuel out of reach of Russian missiles.
This kind of thinking will most likely be paramount for Ukraine to be able to increase it’s own military strength and initiate counteroffensives in the occupied territories.
6. Civilian resistance
The Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine have been largely depopulated due to civilians fleeing the fighting as well as Russia deporting Ukrainian children.
But the remaining Ukrainian civilians can play a key part in getting the territoris back on Ukrainian hands.
Partisan sabotage missions
There are almost daily reports of partisan sabotage missions aimed at Russian military infrastructure, and this is key for Ukraine to gain the upper hand in the occupied ares.
By not having to send troops behind enemy lines in order to disrupt Russian logistics, the Ukrainian soldiers can focus on the strategy and fighting.
It’s all academic
Remember that all of the listed points are speculative. We are not military experts, and there is a lot we don’t know about the situation on the ground in Ukraine.
But one thing is for sure: Ukraine will need help in order to win the war.
Whether they will actually be able to take back all of the lost territory is a whole other matter – even though Trump says, he believes, they can do it.
This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, which may have used AI in the preparation
