Kathrine Frich
Russia still supplies a significant share of India’s military hardware.
Russia still supplies a significant share of India’s military hardware.
Modi Holds the Key to Ending the War
British Colonel Tim Collins argues that India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi could stop Russia’s war in Ukraine almost overnight.
In a recent analysis, Collins claims that halting India’s purchases of Russian oil would immediately weaken the Kremlin’s war machine, potentially forcing Putin to the negotiating table.
One Choice: Cut Russian Oil
According to Collins, Modi faces a critical decision.
If India cuts off its imports of Russian oil, it would strike a financial blow to Moscow.
India currently buys around 40% of its oil from Russia, a massive increase since before the war. Collins believes that choosing Western alignment over cheap energy could change the course of the conflict.
A Longstanding Relationship with Moscow
India’s bond with Russia isn’t new. Collins points out that the two nations have shared military and diplomatic ties since the Soviet era, including crucial support during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War.
Today, Russia still supplies a significant share of India’s military hardware, complicating the prospect of a clean break.
U.S. Frustration Mounts
The White House has been vocal. U.S. officials, including spokesperson Stephen Miller, have called India’s continued oil trade with Russia “unacceptable.”
While Washington has offered incentives to bring India closer to the West, the Biden and Trump administrations alike have expressed growing concern over Modi’s neutrality.
India’s Security Dilemma
Collins acknowledges that India’s position is complicated by regional threats.
China’s growing influence, including military partnerships with Pakistan, has put India under pressure.
Modi must balance historical loyalty to Moscow with the need to modernize and prepare for threats on multiple fronts, particularly along the Chinese border.
Military Weakness Exposed
According to Collins, the 100-hour war with Pakistan, allegedly backed by Chinese technology, revealed India’s shortcomings, especially in drone warfare.
Despite reviewing Ukrainian drone models, India’s ties to Russia made cooperation impossible.
The result: a military strategy caught between legacy dependence and emerging threats.
Is Trump the Better Diplomat?
In Collins’ view, pressure won’t work. Instead, he suggests that Donald Trump’s charm offensive could be more effective than public scolding.
Trump’s envoy is already in Moscow. If Washington wants to pull India closer, it may need to appeal to Modi’s pragmatism rather than rely on harsh rhetoric or ultimatums.
India at a Crossroads
India’s current strategy may be economically rational, but Collins argues it is politically untenable in the long term.
With China expanding its influence in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and beyond, India risks geopolitical isolation unless it shifts its alliances.
The war in Ukraine has become more than a European crisis, it is now a global test of where nations stand.
Collins’ Warning: Time Is Running Out
The former British commander warns that indecision is no longer an option.
By continuing to fund the Kremlin through oil purchases, Modi risks being seen as complicit in sustaining the war.
A decisive break with Russia, Collins argues, could shift momentum in Ukraine’s favor and reshape the global order.
