Kathrine Frich
Unease is spreading inside Russia’s ruling circles.
Public loyalty to Vladimir Putin remains intact, but behind closed doors, confidence has eroded and expectations have shifted.
According to a Russian economist, the elite feels trapped in a rigid system.
With no clear path to change from within, many are now looking outward for a dramatic rupture.
Turning point
Alexandra Prokopenko, a researcher at the Carnegie Center in Berlin, described the mood of the Russian elite in an interview with the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
She said the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a decisive break.
“Before the war, Putin was largely seen as a rational, if aging, autocrat. After the launch of the full-scale invasion, that perception collapsed,” Prokopenko said, adding that many within the elite now want him to step aside.
She stressed that this demand for an alternative to Putin is not limited to opponents of the war.
It is also present among those who continue to support Russia’s military campaign.
Fading hopes
Discontent is visible even among pro-war circles, including military bloggers who accuse the Kremlin of showing “excessive softness” on the battlefield, according to the report.
The 2023 mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin briefly crystallized these sentiments. Prokopenko said “the uprising sparked not panic but hope and even enthusiasm among some officials.”
For a system stripped of independent decision-making, Prigozhin came to symbolize the possibility of sudden change. His death, however, extinguished those expectations.
Fear as glue
“Fear has since become a core element holding the system together,” Prokopenko argued.
“Members of the elite understand that the rules of the game no longer exist and that past service or loyalty offers no protection.”
She pointed to the case of former economy minister Alexei Ulyukayev as a warning signal. The message, she said, was clear: loyalty is not a guarantee of safety.
As a result, many elites comply outwardly while privately waiting for an external force to “radically change the situation.”
Distorted reality
Prokopenko described the Kremlin as a closed information loop where reality is increasingly warped.
Economic and military data reaching Putin is filtered and embellished, she said.
Rewards flow to those who tell superiors what they want to hear. Bad news is suppressed, and self-deception is encouraged.
This, she argued, explains why Putin publicly speaks of a “booming consumer market” and global expansion of Russian companies, even as oil revenues fall, reserves shrink and economic stagnation deepens.
Sources: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Dialog.ua, LA.lv
