Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
According to an op-ed by an Oxford professor, a desperate Putin can be even more dangerous.
According to estimates from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Putin has now lost more than 1.4 million troops in the war in Ukraine (counting both killed and injured) as of June 29, 2026.
One of the biggest questions surrounding the future of the war is whether Putin is able to replenish his losses, and if new estimates are to be believed, it will be difficult for the Kremlin to keep recruiting at a sustainable level.
In an op-ed in Foreign Policy, Peter Frankopan, professor of global history at the University of Oxford, cites Russian military bloggers as estimating the average life expectancy of Russian recruits to be between 10 days and three weeks, from arriving at a training ground to being killed in combat.
Once in combat, life expectancy can drop to just 20 to 35 minutes.
This comes as the war nears the four-and-a-half-year mark. Recruitment is down 30 percent this year.
To compensate, commanders rush 800 to 1,000 untrained volunteers to the front every single day.
Drones change everything
The toll is enormous. Western sources say total Russian casualties have topped one million since February 2022, with 30,000 monthly losses.
Frankopan noted that Russia suffers eight casualties for every one suffered by Ukraine.
Experts blame this high rate on military drones. Crucially, these unmanned aircraft are now striking targets deep inside Russian territory.
Just yesterday, Ukraine managed to hit two Russian oil refineries hundreds of kilometers apart: one 300 kilometers from the front line and the other 700 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Beware the drowning man
The war devours over half of Russia’s state budget, pushing the entire economy toward collapse. Desperate officials are offering massive incentives.
Volunteers can receive an $80,000 sign-up bonus and $140,000 in debt relief, which is a fortune compared to the average monthly salary of $1,000.
And as the war drags on, Russia’s federal budget deficit keeps increasing, and the Russian forces struggle to make even small advances on the battlefield. Frankopan warns that a desperate leader is more dangerous.
As he wrote, “Beware the drowning man: The coming months will likely be dangerous outside and inside Russia as Putin tries desperately to stay afloat.”
