Christine Drews Sieger
A former Polish general warns that Russia may intensify hybrid operations against NATO rather than launch a conventional military attack.
NATO countries are closely monitoring developments following new assessments suggesting that Russia may be preparing to intensify its activities targeting the alliance.
Several Western security assessments point to a growing risk. Among them, former CIA Director William Burns has warned that tensions could escalate.
A similar assessment comes from former Polish Air Force General Tomasz Drewniak.
In an interview with Wirtualna Polska, Drewniak explained that any potential Russian move is unlikely to take the form of a traditional invasion.
New methods
“The threat is absolutely real. It just won’t involve Russian tanks crossing the borders of the Baltic states, Poland, or any other country,” Tomasz Drewniak said.
According to the former general, Russia is not ready for a direct, large-scale war with NATO but may instead continue using more indirect methods that are more difficult to link directly to Moscow.
“In my opinion, the threat is absolutely real. It will not involve Russian tanks crossing the borders of the Baltic states, Poland, or any other country. I believe it will take the form of another provocation, perhaps under a false flag or carried out in a way that cannot be directly linked to Russia. Russia is not ready for a full-scale conflict with NATO today, but it is prepared to continue the campaign it has been waging for several years against the Baltic states and the West as a whole,” he said, according to Wirtualna Polska.
Hybrid threat
Drewniak pointed to previous incidents involving drones, damaged anchors, and severed cables as examples of the type of hybrid activities that have already characterized tensions between Russia and the West.
“I expect something that may not even have happened before. There were drones, damaged anchors, cable cuts, and all kinds of other incidents. So I believe we are entering another round of this type of warfare,” he said.
At the same time, he considers a missile attack less likely because it would be difficult to conceal its origin.
“You cannot launch a missile attack under a false flag or pretend it is not your missile, so I think it will be something else. But it is to be expected, because the Russians are quite inventive when it comes to creating these kinds of situations, and I believe they have been working on it for some time. If intelligence experts are talking about it, it means the threat is credible and should be taken seriously,” he said, according to Wirtualna Polska.
Why are cable cuts and anchors mentioned?
Drewniak’s reference to cable cuts and anchors relates to a series of incidents in the Baltic Sea in which undersea telecommunications and power cables have been damaged.
According to NATO, such incidents, together with sabotage, cyberattacks, and other hybrid activities, have led to increased monitoring of critical infrastructure in the region.
The alliance states that protecting undersea cables has become an important part of efforts to safeguard communications, energy supplies, and the overall resilience of its member states.
What is hybrid warfare?
Hybrid warfare refers to a combination of military and non-military methods used to weaken another country without necessarily triggering a conventional war.
According to NATO, this may include cyberattacks, disinformation, economic pressure, sabotage, and covert operations aimed at creating uncertainty and undermining a society.
These methods are often used to blur the line between peace and conflict, making it difficult to quickly determine who is responsible for an attack.
Sources: Wirtualna Polska, NATO
