Experts warn of signs: Putin invasion of two NATO allies is imminent

Poland and Lithuania would be the first to face attack.

The Suwałki Gap: NATO’s Achilles heel

Experts say the 60-mile corridor between Poland and Lithuania could be Russia’s first target.

The Suwałki Gap links Belarus to Kaliningrad and cutting it would isolate the Baltic states.

Military analysts have long described it as the alliance’s weakest point.

Lithuania and Poland in the firing line

If Russia moved through the Suwałki Gap, Poland and Lithuania would be the first to face attack.

Both countries are on the front line of NATO and already support Ukraine with weapons and training.

Their location makes them strategically vital, but also vulnerable.

Kaliningrad and Belarus fuel fears

Russia has increased its military presence in Kaliningrad, its heavily armed enclave on the Baltic Sea.

At the same time, Belarus hosts Kremlin troops and missiles.

Together, these positions put Poland and Lithuania under direct threat.

Signs of hybrid warfare

Former intelligence officers warn that Moscow could begin with hybrid tactics before an invasion.

These include cyber attacks, GPS interference, or stirring unrest among Russian-speaking minorities.

Such moves would test NATO’s response without triggering open war immediately.

A lesson from Ukraine

Before invading Ukraine in 2022, Russia built up troops along the border for months.

Experts say a similar massing of forces in Belarus or Kaliningrad would be a clear warning sign for Poland and Lithuania.

The propaganda playbook could also return, with Moscow claiming it is “defending” people in those regions.

NATO’s growing alarm

NATO leaders have repeatedly called the Suwałki Gap the most dangerous place in Europe.

Secretary General Mark Rutte and other officials warn Russia could use it to split the alliance in case of war.

Protecting the corridor is now a top priority for military planners.

The undersea cables threat

Experts also point to Europe’s reliance on undersea internet and energy cables near the Baltic states.

At least 11 have been damaged since 2023.

Any sabotage could cut off Poland and Lithuania’s communication with allies, making them easier targets.

What an invasion could mean

If Russia seized the Suwałki Gap, it would not just endanger Poland and Lithuania.

It would cut off Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from the rest of NATO, leaving them exposed.

Analysts say this scenario could drag the alliance into direct conflict and trigger Article 5.

Preparing for the unthinkable

NATO countries are now reinforcing eastern Europe with troops, tanks and air defence systems.

Lithuania has even discussed using restored wetlands as a defensive barrier.

But experts warn the risk remains high, and any Russian move here could light the fuse of World War Three.