Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
What was supposed to be a swift 10-day victory for Putin has turned out to be maybe the most humiliating military campaign in modern history.
The failure of the initial Russian invasion of Ukraine serves as a modern case study in the violation of ancient military wisdom.
Sun Tzu’s The Art of War (written approx. 2500 years ago) emphasizes that victory is the result of calculation and adaptability.
By analyzing the 2022 invasion through the filter of tactics for ancient warfare, we can identify four critical blunders documented by international observers and military historians.
1. Failure to “Know the Enemy and Know Yourself”
Sun Tzu’s most famous maxim states: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.”
The Kremlin’s strategy suffered from what The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) describes as a profound failure of intelligence.
Based on flawed reports from the FSB’s 5th Service, Russian leadership believed the Ukrainian state would collapse instantly.
According to investigative reports by The Washington Post, Russia “knew” a phantom version of Ukraine, failing to account for the military modernization undertaken by Kyiv since 2014.
Simultaneously, Russia overestimated its own “self”—believing its military was a peer to NATO when, in reality, it lacked the logistical depth for a multi-front invasion.
2. Disregarding the “Moral Law”
The first of Sun Tzu’s Five Constant Factors is the Moral Law, which ensures the people are in accord with their ruler. For Ukraine, this was their greatest asset.
Business Insider reported in 2024 that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was actually offered an emergency escape via train, but he never accepted to offer. Zelenskyy’s refusal to flee unified the populace in a “death ground” struggle.
Zelenskyy has also famously been quoted by the Associated Press for saying: “I need ammunition, not a ride”.
Conversely, as documented by human rights monitors and intercepted communications released by Ukrainian intelligence (SBU), many Russian soldiers were unaware they were entering a hot war. When the purpose of a conflict is opaque to those fighting it, morale evaporates.
Sun Tzu warns that a spiritless army cannot win; the Russian “will to fight” has consistently lagged behind the existential motivation of the Ukrainian defenders.
3. The Danger of Prolonged Warfare
Sun Tzu was a fierce critic of long campaigns: “There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare.”
Russia’s “Thunder Run” on Kyiv was a gamble on a “swift stroke” victory.
According to analysis from War on the Rocks, when the initial decapitation strike failed at Hostomel Airport, the war shifted into a resource-draining stalemate.
By failing to secure a quick victory, Russia allowed the West time to mobilize. This delay enabled the delivery of high-tech systems like HIMARS, which U.S. Department of Defense briefings later credited with halting Russian momentum.
4. Ignoring “Heaven and Earth” (Terrain and Logistics)
The factors of Heaven (weather) and Earth (terrain) were catastrophically neglected.
Russia launched its invasion during the Rasputitsa (mud season). Satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies famously captured a 40-mile convoy on a paved road, with Reuters reporting on March 1 2022, that it was unclear if the convoy had stalled completely, but that it was not making much progress – if any.
By ignoring the “Earth”—the restrictive Ukrainian marshes and urban bottlenecks—Russian forces forfeited their numerical advantage. They became entangled in what Sun Tzu called “Difficult Ground,” where the defender holds every advantage.
As noted by military analyst Michael Kofman, this lack of geographical foresight turned Russian armor into sitting ducks for mobile Ukrainian anti-tank teams.
Conclusion
The Russian invasion failed not for a lack of firepower, but for a lack of strategy.
By violating the core tenets of the Art of War—misjudging the enemy’s resolve, ignoring logistical realities, and entering a war without a clear moral mandate—the Russian military found itself trapped.
As a maxim often attributed to Sun Tzu states: “Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.
