Kathrine Frich
Control of the Black Sea has become one of the quiet but decisive fronts of the war.
Far from the main battle lines, both sides have been testing new weapons and tactics, often out of public view.
Recent developments show how quickly the balance can shift, especially when technology exposes weaknesses once thought secure.
Strike beneath the waves
Ukraine’s navy has confirmed a successful operation using its Sub Sea Baby underwater drone against a Russian submarine at the Novorossiysk naval base.
Footage released by Ukrainian sources shows an explosion near the stern of a Project 636.3 Varshavyanka-class submarine while it was submerged.
According to the assessment, the blast caused critical damage, effectively disabling the vessel.
The impact point indicates harm to the propellers, propeller shaft and steering systems, all of which are essential for manoeuvring and putting to sea.
The footage also confirmed that the strike occurred underwater, marking the first verified drone attack on a submerged submarine inside a protected port.
Defences breached
The operation demonstrated that Ukrainian forces were able to penetrate buoys, barriers and anti-submarine nets guarding the Novorossiysk base.
Ukrainian sources stressed that Russia was aware of Kyiv’s underwater drone capabilities but was still unable to prevent the attack.
As a result of the strike, Russia also lost another carrier capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles, further reducing its naval strike potential in the region.
Which specific Varshavyanka submarine was hit has not been publicly confirmed.
A shrinking fleet
At the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, four Varshavyanka-class submarines were operating in the Black Sea: B-237 Rostov-on-Don, B-265 Krasnodar, B-268 Veliky Novgorod and B-271 Kolpino.
The B-237 Rostov-on-Don had already been struck twice.
It was damaged during a cruise missile attack on September 13, 2023, and later, on August 2, 2024, was reported to have sunk after another strike.
With the latest damage in Novorossiysk, Russia is left with no more than two Varshavyanka submarines considered combat-ready in the Black Sea.
This represents a loss of roughly half of the fleet’s original operational capacity in those waters.
Sources: Ukrainian Navy statements, open-source military assessments, Wirtualna Polska
