ISW: Ukraine’s slow Oleksandrivka push could later cut Russian supply lines

For much of the autumn, Russia’s push in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia borderlands has dominated the daily frontline maps. A different, slower movement in the same area is now beginning to redirect where Moscow places its best troops, with potential consequences for Russian supply lines further behind the line.

Ukrainian forces are making “slow but tactically significant gains” in the Oleksandrivka direction that may later threaten Russian logistics and ongoing operations in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions over the long term, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its October 25 assessment.

The think tank, based in Washington, publishes a daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment widely used by Western analysts and officials.

Villages retaken east of Oleksandrivka

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on October 25 that Ukrainian units had liberated Perebudova, east of Oleksandrivka, as well as Komar, south of Perebudova across the Mokri Yaly River, and Fedorivka, directly south of Komar. Russian forces still hold positions on the northeastern edge of Perebudova, according to reporting carried by United24 Media.

The settlements sit along the administrative boundary between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Marines pulled off the attack to defend

The pressure in the sector has already changed how Russia uses its reserves. According to ISW, persistent Ukrainian counterattacks forced the Russian military command to redeploy elements of the 120th Naval Infantry Division of the Baltic Fleet and the 40th Separate Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet to defend the Oleksandrivka direction, instead of supporting offensive operations toward Hulyaipole.

Elements of the 90th Tank Division, initially earmarked for the push toward Druzhkivka, were also pulled to the Oleksandrivka sector, The New Voice of Ukraine reported, citing the ISW assessment.

Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction on October 24 and 25 but did not advance, ISW said.

The picture across the broader Donetsk front remains mixed. Russian forces recently advanced in the Novopavlivka direction, with Mashovets reporting on October 25 that Russian units hold positions southwest of Filiya.

Drone war still shadowed by Starshield

Overnight on October 24-25, Russia launched 153 strike drones and loitering munitions, including 92 jet-powered drones, against Ukraine, ISW said. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or suppressed 119, among them 64 jet-powered drones.

Ukraine’s jet-powered drone interception rate held at a relatively high level despite restrictions imposed on SpaceX’s Starshield communications network in mid-October. The rate dropped from 77 percent to about 74 percent during the October 14-24 period of service disruptions, according to UNN, citing the ISW assessment.

ISW writes that Ukraine will need innovative jet-powered interceptors to sustain and improve these rates over the long term. Ukrainian manufacturer F-Drones is developing an F-Jet 80 interceptor with an AI-enabled guidance system aimed specifically at Russia’s Shahed jet-powered drones.

This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, who may have used AI in the preparation