Kathrine Frich
As the war grinds on, analysts say territorial shifts alone do not reveal the real balance of power between Russia and Ukraine.
The pace of fighting in 2025 has exposed strains on both sides, but some military specialists argue that political outcomes, not geography, will determine the endgame.
A new assessment highlights the limits of Russia’s progress despite another year of intense operations.
Limited advances
Security specialist Mick Ryan observed that Russia’s ground gains this year were small relative to the resources poured into them.
According to figures cited by British intelligence and published on Substack, Moscow captured about 4,300 square kilometres in 2025, roughly 440 square kilometres per month, without taking any major Ukrainian cities.
Those gains, the analysis noted, came alongside an estimated 350,000 Russian casualties.
Political versus territorial goals
Ryan argued that the conflict is driven more by political ambitions than land acquisition.
He wrote: “Over the course of this war, we have proposed measures of success and failure to provide more information about how Russia and Ukraine are heading in this war and to fuel the debate about its trajectory.”
He added that consistent evaluation can offer “political and military lessons” for Western observers seeking to understand each side’s strategy.
Strategic momentum
Over the past year, the report said, Russia has combined ground operations with sustained air attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and defence sites.
These actions, along with diplomatic manoeuvres, were described as an effort to secure favourable conditions for a ceasefire.
The analysis stated: “It is very likely that Russia’s efforts to ‘learn how to work better’ over the past three years have reached critical mass and are now paying dividends at the tactical and strategic levels.”
Broader aims
The study examined Russia’s objectives for 2025, which it said remain unchanged since the invasion began.
According to the assessment, President Vladimir Putin seeks to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty, keep the country militarily neutral and prevent it from becoming a democratic model for Russians at home.
These goals are tied to a narrative portraying Ukraine and NATO as threats to what Moscow calls Russian civilisation.
Costly operations
Russian forces concentrated heavily on attempts to encircle Pokrovsk, advancing roughly 40 kilometres over the course of the year.
Despite nearing a link-up of their two assault axes, the push has come with significant losses.
With Ukraine covering more than 600,000 square kilometres, Russia’s 2025 gains account for about 0.7 percent of the country’s territory.
Sources: Ziare.com, British intelligence data as cited, Substack publication.
