Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
According to the intel, Russia is producing roughly 10,000 strike and decoy drones every month.
Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, known by its Ukrainian initials HUR, has published its most detailed public ledger yet of what Russia has sitting in its warehouses and how fast its factories are turning out replacements.
In an assessment given to Ukrainian outlet NV, HUR said Russia now holds up to 700 ballistic missiles, several thousand cruise missiles and about 6,200 Shahed-type attack drones, which Moscow calls Geran.
The ballistic stockpile is led by roughly 115 Iskander-M missiles, with up to 65 built each month, and up to 400 RM-48U missiles adapted from the S-300 and S-400 air-defense families, produced at about 40 a month. HUR said production of the air-launched Kinzhal has been paused over accuracy problems.
Thousands of cruise missiles and hypersonics
On the cruise side, the Kalibr stockpile exceeds 450 missiles, with about 29 added each month. The Kh-101 air-launched line is turning out more than 80 a month and remains Moscow’s main tool for massed strikes.
HUR estimated the hypersonic Zircon reserve at more than 120, with just over 30 built since the start of 2026, and put the upgraded Oniks anti-ship stock above 600, with more than 55 produced between January and July.
A drone pipeline built to overwhelm air defenses
The Geran drones are the industrial centerpiece. Russia’s state order for Geran and decoy drones in 2026 exceeds 100,000 units, and monthly UAV production has reached 10,000 units. HUR said the jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 account for up to 4,000 of those a month, with another 2,000 Geran-2s added alongside them.
HUR’s analysts framed the drone output as a strategy of attrition, saying Moscow is “systematically seeking to wear down” Ukrainian air defenses by stacking cheap decoys next to live warheads from the expanded Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan.
The scale of that pressure was on display overnight. From 18:00 on October 20, the Ukrainian Air Force said Russia fired Iskander-K cruise missiles from Rostov and launched 186 strike and decoy drones, including 88 jet-powered Shahed variants, from Oryol, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, occupied Donetsk, and Crimea. By 08:30 Kyiv time, air defenses had shot down or suppressed 150 of the drones; ten remained airborne as combat operations continued.
