Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
His forces actually suffered a net loss of territory in September.
On paper, the Kremlin claims its soldiers are sweeping across the map.
President Vladimir Putin recently visited a military command post to celebrate what he described as massive territorial gains, telling staff that Russian forces are “confidently advancing” along the entire front line.
According to a transcript of Putin’s speech from the visit, he claimed that Russian forces had taken control of 6,500 square kilometers of territory and 310 settlements.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), his chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov, backed up the upbeat message. Gerasimov claimed that Russian units had seized more than 1,800 square kilometres and 92 settlements since September alone.
The reality on the ground tells a radically different story. Independent monitors who track frontline movements say Moscow is inflating its victories out of thin air.
Reality check
ISW assesses that Russia’s actual progress is roughly forty-five times smaller than the Kremlin claims.
In fact, Moscow took only a sliver of ground this year. Since September, Russian forces have suffered a net loss of 122 square kilometres, according to the think tank.
Ukrainian troops have been pushing back hard. In the eastern Donetsk region, where Putin claimed Kyiv holds just ten percent of the land, the think tank confirmed Ukrainian forces still defend more than double that share.
Similar fictions showed up around southern cities. While Russian commanders boasted of standing five kilometres from the city of Zaporizhzhia, verified monitoring shows Russian troops remain over twenty kilometres away.
The optical illusion
But since the claims from the Russian command can so easily be debunked, why do Putin and Gerasimov keep presenting a distorted version of what actually happens on the ground?
ISW assesses that Moscow is running a targeted information campaign, trying to portray Russian advances as unstoppable to force concessions at the bargaining table.
Yet the push has stalled. Independent researchers at the Finland-based Black Bird Group reported that Russia’s monthly land gains recently dropped to their lowest levels since mid-2023, choked off by Ukrainian counterattacks and drone strikes.
Bold speeches can cheer a room in Moscow. Still, no microphone can conquer territory that soldiers cannot hold.
