Kathrine Frich
Russia’s war against Ukraine has unfolded in stages, each reshaping the conflict’s scale and consequences
The confrontation began in 2014 with Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, followed by years of low-intensity fighting in eastern Ukraine that never fully froze into peace.
That conflict entered a new and far more destructive phase on February 24, 2022, when Russian forces launched a full-scale invasion aimed at rapidly subduing Ukraine.
Nearly four years later, the war has hardened into a grinding campaign of attrition, with 2025 offering one of the clearest pictures yet of the costs Moscow continues to absorb.
Territory and momentum
According to the Russia Matters War Report Card, based on Institute for the Study of War data, Russian forces gained 243 square miles of Ukrainian territory between Nov. 11 and Dec. 9, 2025.
That marked an increase from the previous four-week period, but analysts note the advances remain incremental rather than decisive.
In the single week from Dec. 2 to Dec. 9, Russian troops advanced by 55 square miles.
Since Jan. 1, 2025, Russia has averaged roughly 44 square miles of territorial gains per week.
The fortified city of Pokrovsk has come largely under Russian control.
However, George Barros of ISW argued in The Washington Post that its fall does not spell collapse for Ukraine’s defense of Donetsk, where Kyiv still controlled about 22% of the region as of early December.
Human cost
Western estimates indicate Russian casualties have continued to rise sharply.
According to an April 2025 estimate cited by Russia Matters, more than 790,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the full-scale invasion began, with tens of thousands listed as missing.
Ukrainian losses are also severe. Russia Matters references estimates of roughly 400,000 Ukrainian troops killed or injured since 2022, highlighting the immense human toll on both sides.
Civilian casualties remain disproportionately concentrated in Ukraine, with nearly 16,000 civilians killed, according to compiled figures included in the report.
Equipment losses
Russia’s material losses have grown alongside its manpower toll.
Data compiled from Oryx and Ukrainian military sources indicate Russia has lost more than 23,500 military vehicles and systems since 2022, including over 11,000 tanks and nearly 24,000 armored fighting vehicles.
Ukrainian armed forces reported that by Dec. 23, 2025, Russia had also lost more than 93,000 drones, over 4,000 cruise missiles and hundreds of aircraft and helicopters.
Analysts say the destruction represents tens of billions of dollars in lost equipment, adding pressure on Russia’s defense industry.
Economic strain
Russia Matters reports that Russia’s wartime economy is showing signs of stress in 2025. GDP growth has slowed to below 1%, while the federal budget deficit has widened and bond yields have climbed.
At the same time, Ukrainian strikes have disrupted parts of Russia’s energy sector, even as Russian attacks have devastated Ukraine’s power infrastructure, according to Reuters and World Bank data.
Sources: Russia Matters, Institute for the Study of War, Reuters, The Washington Post, Oryx
