Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Not even the promise of a monthly salary double the average in Russia seems to be enough for people to be willing to risk their lives.
1,378,820 people.
That is the estimated number of casualties (killed and wounded) the Russian army has suffered since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 until now, according to figures from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
If the estimates are accurate, it means that nearly one percent of Russia’s entire pre-war population has either died or been injured in Ukraine.
With losses of that magnitude, it takes a massive recruitment campaign to replenish them. However, as the Kremlin wishes to avoid an actual mobilization in order to prevent domestic backlash over the ongoing war, the Russian authorities have instead prioritized volunteer recruitment by offering massive signing bonuses.
But data suggests that not even the promise of a large payout is enough to persuade Russians to enlist.
Dwindling numbers
According to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), fewer people are signing up for the Russian Armed Forces, and the downward trend has only worsened since it began a year ago.
The independent Russian media outlet Vazhnye Istorii recently analyzed federal budget data to track the decline.
According to the figures, 71,200 people received one-time enlistment bonuses in early 2026.
That represents a sharp 20 percent drop.
The issue is not new. ISW noted that 363,900 people signed contracts in 2025, which was already 10 percent lower than the previous year.
High battlefield costs
For months, the Kremlin has relied on sheer numbers to overwhelm its opponent. But Ukrainian drones have largely blunted that advantage. The resulting losses have been devastating.
Moscow is raising signing bonuses, dipping into its reserves, and pursuing covert mobilization efforts to counter the shortfall. However, as the data suggests, it is still not enough.
The ISW concluded that “the Kremlin has been setting conditions to conduct limited, rolling reserve call-ups to make up for its losses in Ukraine amid declining recruitment rates and rising casualty rates.”
Looking abroad
Because local recruitment is stalling, Russia is casting a wider net across the globe. Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation reported that an active campaign was launched in late 2025 to recruit fighters from Iran.
Flyers in several Iranian cities offered large sums of money to anyone willing to join. The advertisements promised a $20,000 signing bonus alongside a monthly payment of $2,000.
According to Wage.is, the average monthly salary in Russia is $1,034.
More recently, the recruitment drive has expanded even further. In May, the Kremlin extended its foreign recruitment network to actively recruit citizens from various African countries to fight on the front lines.
