Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
According to the commander of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces, drones alone will inflict more than 34,000 Russian casualties before the month is over.
Long-term conflicts often look like an endless game of chess, with each side trading minor advantages over months of grueling effort. But sometimes, a series of coordinated moves can suddenly tilt the board and force an aggressive opponent onto the back foot.
After months of absorbing heavy pressure, Ukrainian forces are successfully seizing control of the battlefield tempo across multiple front lines.
According to the May 20 update on the war from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), recent Ukrainian counterattacks have delivered some of the most notable territorial advances for Kyiv in nearly two years.
Hundreds of square kilometers regained
The shifts span several key regions.
Ukrainian forces managed to reclaim large parts of Kupyansk late last year before liberating as much as 400 square kilometers across southern areas and securing fresh settlements in the western Zaporizhzhia region.
These sudden maneuvers are directly disrupting Russia’s major warm-weather offensive.
ISW suggests that Moscow is now caught in a difficult bind, forced to choose between defending its current positions and moving vital troops to protect other vulnerable sectors.
Death from above
Part of the explanation for the territorial gains is a massive surge in targeted mid-range drone and artillery strikes, which has crippled the logistics networks supporting Russian troops. The relentless pressure has dramatically weakened Moscow’s ability to launch new attacks.
In an interview with the defense outlet Militarnyi, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi explained the strategy. He stated that precise strikes and relentless pressure have allowed his troops to “increasingly seize the tactical initiative” on the ground.
The human toll of this digital and aerial campaign is rising rapidly. According to data from Ukraine’s Delta software, drones alone struck more than 19,000 Russian soldiers during the first nineteen days of May.
Major Robert Brovdi, who commands the Unmanned Systems Forces, predicts that drone strikes alone will inflict more than 34,000 casualties by the end of the month. That massive figure does not even include losses from traditional artillery or rear-guard actions.
The recruitment trap
This heavy attrition comes at a terrible time for the Kremlin, as the Russian Ministry of Defense is reportedly struggling to find enough new recruits to replenish the losses.
Official records show that Russia secured only 70,500 new military service contracts during the first quarter of the year. That intake falls well short of the Kremlin’s strict monthly targets.
Ukrainian official Mykhailo Fedorov announced that Kyiv successfully pushed Russian casualty rates beyond Moscow’s replacement capacity last month. The military has now set a firm goal of inflicting roughly 50,000 enemy casualties every single month.
Sources: Militarnyi, Institute for the Study of War
