Russia only has one real hope of winning the war, institute suggests

The institute also suggests that Russia is trying to maintain appearance of being interested in peace to delay Western discussions of additional aid for Ukraine.

What is happening?

In its daily update on the war in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) highlights the “only real hope” Russia has of winning the war.

A war of attrition

According to ISW, Russias only real hope of winning the war is for Russia to outlast the Western Support for Ukraine.

Massive losses for minimal gains

ISW points to the fact that Putin seems committed to his theory of victory, which assumes that the Russian Military will be able to keep fighting and sustain itself in return for minimal territorial gains in Ukraine.

Prisoner exchange

ISW also suggests that the Kremlin isn’t actually interested in any peace, and that the Russian leadership is simply trying to keep up the appearance of being so – lately illustrated by the large prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine.

Buffer zone would take nearly a century

Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Dmitrij Medvedev, has suggested that Russia should implement a “buffer zone” between the sides in Ukraine.

This, however, would take 91 years to achieve at the current rate, according to the ISW.

Would cost 50 million casualties

ISW further suggests that at the current rate of Russian losses, the creation of a buffer zone would also see the Russians suffer nearly 50 million losses in an effert to create a buffer zone.

That is the same as approximatly one third of the entire Russian population.

Western aid remains vital

ISW finishes its daily assessment of the war by assessing that Western aid for Ukraine is vital in the countrys ability to defend itself.

It will also be crucial for ensuring a longstanding ad just peace as well as providing Europe with long-term security.