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The analytics firm cut its annual market growth forecast by a fifth.
Ukrainian strikes on major distribution hubs have triggered a sharp slowdown for digital retail platforms across Russia.
According to analytics firm Data Insight, cited by The Moscow Times, Ukrainian drone attacks on marketplace facilities will wipe out roughly 400 million orders and 400 billion rubles in revenue this year.
That is roughly 4.74 billion USD.
Growth forecast cut by a fifth
The analytics firm cut its annual market growth forecast by 20 percent. Overall market volume is now expected to reach 9.6 billion orders instead of the previously projected 10 billion, while total sales will drop to 15 trillion rubles.
Most of the severe disruption hit Wildberries logistics hubs starting in mid-July, followed by strikes on Ozon facilities in late August.
“The warehouse bombings led to a drop in sales on Wildberries due to a lack of product selection (unavailable in a specific city or at all) and longer delivery times (shipping further),” said Data Insight founder Fedor Virin.
Shoppers completely canceled roughly 30 percent of delayed or missing orders. Many consumers turned back to traditional physical stores, driving an unexpected summer surge at shopping centers for footwear, clothing, books, and home items.
Sellers pull back
Beyond physical destruction, Wildberries faces growing anger among its merchant network over persistent payment delays.
Vendors failed to receive scheduled money transfers starting in mid-August, which the company blamed on a cyberattack before releasing cash following media coverage.
Payout troubles still linger for small business owners who rely on steady weekly transfers. Community chat groups remain flooded with complaints from entrepreneurs who have gone unpaid for three straight weeks, leading several sellers to clear out their store balances and switch to rival platforms.
“The fourth payment is already due on Monday,” one frustrated vendor reported.
Wildberries management could suffer direct facility losses ranging from 147 to 280 billion rubles, according to Data Insight analyst Sergei Semko. He estimated seller inventory losses alone between 445 and 507 billion rubles.
Meanwhile, Ozon and its sellers face lower total losses of around 100 billion rubles because Ozon leases most of its large facilities, according to Alfa Bank analysts.
