Kathrine Frich
That promise set off alarm bells across European capitals.
When you shut someone out of a room, you expect them to stay on the outside looking in.
In global politics, however, locked doors rarely stay closed for long when money and energy are on the table.
Now, a leader who was supposed to be cut off from the world is back at the center of the action.
Talks in Abu Dhabi
According to journalist Ionut Baias, Russian President Vladimir Putin has broken through Western efforts to isolate him without giving up an inch of ground on the war in Ukraine.
By late 2026, Moscow has used energy deals and Middle East partnerships to put itself right back at the global negotiating table.
Next week, officials from the United States, Ukraine, and Russia will meet in Abu Dhabi for fresh talks backed by US President Donald Trump.
According to an Atlantic Council analysis, Washington’s peace strategy has swung back and forth since 2025 between pushing Kyiv to hand over land and offering friendly terms to Moscow.
Special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have discussed a blueprint that lets Ukraine join the European Union while still meeting many of Russia’s security demands, Baias reported. On Thursday, Trump praised the upcoming pact.
“This is going to be something truly huge. It’s going to affect more than just Ukraine, and I’d even go so far as to say it could impact all of Europe. It’s going to be a huge, wonderful agreement, and everyone will be thrilled,” the US president said.
Europe pushes back
That promise set off alarm bells across European capitals. Leaders in Brussels and across the continent flatly rejected any US-Russian effort to rewrite European security rules behind their backs, Baias reported. Speaking in Warsaw on Friday, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas made her stance clear:
“We already have a European security architecture. The problem is that Russia repeatedly violates the treaties on which it is based. NATO posed no threat to Russia in 2021 and does not pose a threat today. Putin has no veto power over European security.”
Other regional leaders quickly backed her up. While Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha warned against carving the region into spheres of influence, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski called any Ukraine deal that sidelines Europe “in reality impossible.”
Behind the scenes, Putin is leaning heavily on gas and weapons to build leverage. At a recent Gas Exporting Countries Forum summit in Moscow with Iran, Qatar, Libya, and the United Arab Emirates, nations condemned Western sanctions in a “Moscow Declaration” while Putin floated Arctic gas projects with American firms, according to Baias.
Meanwhile, an Al-Monitor analysis found Moscow is readying 90 missile launchers for Iran and sharing satellite data to help Yemen’s Houthi rebels strike Saudi military bases and oil sites.
Writing in Atlantico, French historian Bernard Lecomte argued that Moscow’s behavior reflects an “imperial regime with a mafia character” rather than Western rejection.
“When Putin replaced Yeltsin, the West did everything in its power to help this virtually unknown newcomer get the country back on track, connecting him to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the G7, the World Bank, the Council of Europe, and even NATO,” Lecomte explained.
