Kathrine Frich
Hopes for a rapid peace deal between Ukraine and Russia has long been lost.
Despite repeated international discussions about negotiations, analysts say the conflict is still far from ending.
One Ukrainian expert now believes finding a real exit strategy requires looking closely at money and manpower.
No diplomatic end
Oleksandr Chara, head of the Center for Defense Strategies, told TSN.ua cited by O2 that there is currently no realistic diplomatic path to ending the conflict.
“First, Ukraine has little opportunity to achieve peace diplomatically. We tried to do this, there was a global initiative to involve not only the West but also the global South, but the Chinese and Brazilians torpedoed this process,” Chara said.
He also dismissed political promises suggesting the war could end rapidly.
According to Chara, claims that “the war will end in 24 hours” have no serious basis in reality.
Military pressure
The expert argued that the war will likely continue being decided on the battlefield rather than at the negotiating table.
“It can only be a military solution. We’re doing what we can: we want to destroy more Russians than the Russian Federation is mobilizing. We’ve been achieving these figures since December,” Chara said.
He also noted that Vladimir Putin faces political limitations ahead of Russia’s upcoming State Duma elections.
“And Putin can’t announce general mobilization until September,” Chara added.
Two scenarios
According to Chara, Russia could eventually agree to pause military operations under two main conditions.
The first would be if Moscow realizes its financial reserves are running dangerously low.
“As he emphasizes, if Russia realizes that the money will only suffice for a few months of war, it may decide to end the conflict in order to gain time for further mobilization and rebuilding its potential,” the report stated.
Crimea question
The second possible trigger would be a growing inability to continue mobilizing enough troops to sustain the war.
Chara also argued that the conflict cannot truly end while Russia continues occupying Ukrainian territory, including Crimea.
At the same time, he suggested a temporary pause in fighting could emerge by the end of the year if battlefield conditions remain largely unchanged.
Sources: TSN.ua, The New York Times, O2
