Christine Drews Sieger
Despite heavy losses in Ukraine, experts warn that Russia remains a serious threat and could become more willing to escalate the conflict.
Although Russia has been tied down by the war in Ukraine for several years, the country should still be regarded as a serious security challenge for Europe. That is the assessment of Polish expert Sławomir Dębski.
The assessment was presented on the program Didaskalia, where Dębski and former Polish Chief of the General Staff Rajmund Andrzejczak discussed the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
According to the experts, the war has come at a high cost to Russia, but this does not diminish the country’s ability to create instability in the region and exert political pressure on European nations, WP Wiadomości reports.
The War Is Taking Its Toll
According to Dębski, years of warfare have significantly reduced Russia’s military strength compared with the early stages of the conflict.
According to him, the war has drained resources and reduced military capabilities that could otherwise have been deployed elsewhere.
At the same time, he emphasized that the country is struggling with challenges related to military recruitment, equipment, and the energy sector.
“Russia has become bogged down in Ukraine, contrary to its intentions. It is losing capabilities that would have been dangerous for us,” Dr. Dębski said during the broadcast, according to WP Wiadomości.
Ukraine Is Crucial
According to the expert, the outcome of the war could have major implications for Europe’s future security. He believes that a Ukrainian victory would make it more difficult for Russia to regain its former strength, according to WP Wiadomości.
“A victory for Ukraine would involve establishing a security system that would make Russia’s return much less likely (…) This is why Ukraine is seeking to join NATO and draw the United States more deeply into its security framework. It wants to create a system that can credibly and effectively deter Russia. Russia is weaker now than it was in 2022,” he said.
At the same time, Dębski stressed that European governments should not be reassured by Russia’s current difficulties.
“Russia must not be underestimated (…) Russia will resort to force. It wants to pose a credible threat to Ukraine and to us as well. What Russia is offering right now is what it sees as an advantage: the ability to pose a credible threat to peace in Europe. In return, it seeks political concessions in exchange for not starting a war,” he said.
Concerns Over Further Escalation
We have also previously reported about the raised concerns, that Russia could become more willing to escalate the conflict if its current military losses continue.
Some analysts believe growing pressure on recruitment and the need for additional mobilization could increase the risk of a broader confrontation beyond the current war in Ukraine.
They argue that such a scenario would pose a significant challenge to European security, despite Russia’s current military and economic difficulties.
Source: WP Wiadomości
