Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The Crimean peninsula is becoming increasingly difficult for Russia to use.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian military command is drawing up plans to pull its remaining naval structures out of occupied Crimea.
A partisan group called Atesh, which has agents operating inside the Black Sea Fleet, reported that the Russian leadership wants to move the remaining command hub from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. That destination sits safely inside Russian territory.
The partisan group noted that the current headquarters are steadily losing their ability to function. Constant aerial strikes and sabotage have disrupted daily operations. As a result, the historic base has become too dangerous and chaotic to maintain.
Packing up early
Some military personnel are not waiting around for the official evacuation command to drop. Atesh agents reported that several high-ranking Russian officers have already started moving their families out of the targeted city.
These families are also scrambling to sell off their local real estate and non-movable property before the final orders arrive. The sudden rush to leave shows a growing lack of confidence among those stationed on the ground.
The retreat comes at a time when keeping the base supplied has become nearly impossible. According to ISW, Russia is facing severe logistical hurdles across the entire occupied zone.
Highways shut down
The massive supply issues have forced the Russian military to take drastic measures. Earlier this month, commanders of the Eastern Grouping of Forces reportedly banned military cargo traffic along two vital transit routes.
The strict restrictions apply to the M-14 highway connecting Rostov to Crimea, as well as the main Tavrida highway. These sudden closures have further choked off the crucial flow of equipment, ammunition, and fuel to the frontline.
Independent analysts noted they cannot fully verify the partisan group’s claims just yet. However, ISW stated that recent Ukrainian strikes have clearly crippled Russian logistics across the region, making a naval exit highly plausible.
Can Putin be forced to retreat from Crimea?
The Crimean Peninsula has been occupied by Russia since 2014, and it has become an important logistical hub for Russian operations in the rest of Ukraine.
However, the peninsula has only a few ways of receiving supplies, including Putin’s 19 km Kerch Bridge, which links the Russian mainland to the peninsula, and Ukraine is continuously targeting the limited supply lines that remain.
If the situation for Russian forces on the peninsula continues to deteriorate, one can’t help but wonder: Can Ukraine actually force Putin to abandon Crimea?
It’s becoming increasingly possible
On June 4, RBC-Ukraine interviewed Refat Chubarov, Chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People, on that very topic. Note that this interview was conducted before the Russian authorities imposed fuel restrictions on the peninsula.
In the interview, Chubarov said that hope among the thousands of Kyiv-loyal citizens in Crimea is growing stronger and that if Ukraine succeeds in enforcing a total blockade of Russian supply lines to the peninsula, “the Russians will have no choice but to figure out how to evacuate their forces from Crimea.”
He emphasizes that he is no military expert, but that, based on what he has heard and read, analysts believe that the destruction of the Kerch Bridge could trigger a chain reaction of events leading to a Russian retreat.
It is important to note that this is all speculation, but what we do know for a fact is that the situation in Crimea is changing rapidly due to the Ukrainian strike campaign.
The idea of Ukraine forcing Russia to retreat from Crimea was actually floated as early as June 2024 in a report by the Atlantic Council.
