Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The question is whether Putin will listen to those calling for de-escalation or those calling for escalation.
Putin’s war in Ukraine is getting close to the four-and-a-half-year mark, with no clear path to peace in sight, and the Russian leader is under increasing pressure.
Not necessarily from the Ukrainian forces, although Ukraine’s long-range campaign against Russian oil and gas infrastructure has caused regions across Russia to introduce restrictions on petrol and fuel.
No, Putin is facing increasing pressure much closer to home: from the Russian elite.
A deep rift
In an analysis by The Jamestown Foundation, researchers identified a growing rift among the Russian elite.
While some want to stop the fighting, powerful hardliners are pushing for rapid escalation. Sociologist Igor Eydman noted on Facebook that Vladimir Putin “is under heavy pressure from the Russian elite, who want to end the war, which has reached a dead end.”
The clash is becoming visible in state media. The far-right Tsargrad television channel complained that “the elites are ready to sell out Russia and demand that Putin admit defeat.” Still, the channel insisted that Ukraine is running out of steam, meaning Moscow must keep fighting.
Many officials just want to survive the chaos. The media outlet Verstka reported that political insider Fyodor Krashennikov believes Putin’s inner circle will not rebel because its members fear they could go to jail during a coup. For them, loyalty means safety.
The hawkish bubble
Those who built the war machine have nowhere else to go. Former spy Andrey Bezrukov warned that Russia will remain on a war footing for a couple of decades, according to Meduza. He predicted that two warring generations will emerge.
Putin hears this aggressive outlook daily. Political scientist Tatyana Stanovaya explained on Telegram that hawkish advisers filter out reality. She said these entrenched worldviews “limit the pool of individuals admitted to the circle and filter out information contradicting the established worldview.”
This bubble convinces the Kremlin that victory is certain. Meanwhile, public anger remains low. The Levada Center found that 74 percent of respondents support the military, an increase that followed a rise in Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil.
A dangerous path
Other powerful voices are demanding extreme measures. Kremlin adviser Sergey Karaganov wrote that Russia is engaged in a historic battle, according to the journal Russia in Global Affairs. He argued that the only way forward is “strengthening the policy of reliance on nuclear deterrence.”
This mindset creates new dangers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Moscow wants to pull Belarus deeper into the fighting. Drones are also straying into Baltic airspace, according to Novaya Gazeta Europe.
