Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
As the war in Ukraine drags on, the Kremlin is allegedly seeking a new way to escalate the conflict.
Russia is struggling to secure a clear victory in Ukraine, but Vladimir Putin desperately needs a victory to keep his image of being in control intact.
Because the war in Ukraine is turning against Putin’s forces, the Kremlin is now looking elsewhere for a quick win.
That is the warning from Lithuanian Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas, who claims the Baltic region and Poland are now the most likely targets for Moscow’s next move.
Putin needs “some kind of new win”
Kaunas told the Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT that the war is simply not going to plan for Vladimir Putin.
As Russia is rocked by explosions from Ukrainian drone attacks almost daily, fuel supplies are running dry, and ordinary citizens have started questioning the government.
According to Kaunas, the motivation is simple: “The Kremlin, [Vladimir] Putin, needs a new escalation, some kind of new win, and the Baltic region and Poland are the nearest target in this case,” he added.
Testing the alliance
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda backed up these concerns during an interview with the news agency BNS. He confirmed that intelligence reports show Russia may be plotting disruptions to test how tightly NATO allies will stick together.
The danger might not look like a traditional invasion. Instead, officials worry about attacks on critical infrastructure such as power grids, communication lines, and transit hubs. These attacks could involve regular military forces or covert hybrid tactics.
Poland is also on high alert. Reports show that Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has previously expressed concerns that Russia might stage a false-flag operation using drones built in Ukraine.
Guarding the grid
Still, top military officials urge calm alongside vigilance. General Raimundas Vaikšnoras, Lithuania’s Chief of Defence, explained that an outright invasion is not visible today. Even so, he noted that provocations cannot be ruled out.
In response, Lithuania has already deployed guards to protect its vital infrastructure. The country is beefing up security around bridges, gas pipelines, and power plants to prepare for any sudden moves.
The nation’s Public Security Service is leading the patrol effort, with troops ready to step in if the situation escalates. Kaunas made it clear that while they are strengthening defences, they are not trying to pick a fight.
