Kathrine Frich
European leaders are not ignoring the alliance.
Every partnership has a surface and a hidden depth. T
wo global giants project total unity on the world stage, shaking hands for the cameras.
Behind closed doors, however, one side is already planning for a future without the other’s leader.
Planning for tomorrow
Beijing holds the key to Moscow’s survival. Russian officials know it, and some are quietly looking ahead.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Chinese leaders are building ties with Russian elites outside of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle. They want to secure their influence long after he is gone.
Independent analyst Alexei Chigadaev told Meduza that various Kremlin figures are actively offering services to Beijing.
“There are all sorts of people there, from charlatans to serious figures, and it’s hard to say how the Chinese react because they are very discreet and cautious, although they certainly narrow down their choices,” Chigadaev said.
A junior partner
China wants to keep Russia stable. Total chaos across the border would threaten trade routes and raw materials.
Still, Beijing uses the current power dynamic to its advantage. Alexander Gabuyev of the Carnegie Center told The Wall Street Journal that the shift is profound.
“China has a truly remarkable chance of transforming Russia into something like a giant Laos or Pakistan. Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on China to avoid being completely left behind and isolated on the global political scene, as well as being far from modern technological trends,” Gabuyev said.
Trading war secrets
The Moscow Times notes that Russian intelligence has spotted increased Chinese espionage. Mid level officials are being recruited, yet Moscow stays quiet to avoid upsetting its ally.
Military ties are also deepening in the shadows. An investigation by Der Spiegel, Insider, and Le Monde uncovered a vast exchange of battlefield data.
Beijing supplies the Kremlin with missing electronics. In return, Russia shares real world tactics about fighting Western weapons.
European alarm bells
European leaders are not ignoring the alliance. German politician Johan Wadephul told AFP that the partnership is dangerous.
“China must realize that this has a direct impact on Europe’s security interests. Any support for Russia’s war against Ukraine prolongs the conflict and only brings new, enormous suffering. Reports of significant Chinese support for the Russian armed forces are extremely worrying,” Wadephul said.
The Chinese embassy in Berlin denied the accusations to Deutsche Welle. Officials called the reports “slander” and stated that “these claims have no factual basis.”
Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Meduza, The Moscow Times, Daily Express
