Kathrine Frich
Western intelligence agencies believe Moscow is actively looking for new ways to test the NATO alliance.
Bordering a superpower requires constant vigilance. For years, staying alert has simply been a part of daily life in Eastern Europe. Now, experts warn that the next major challenge might not involve a traditional battlefield.
Seeking a weak point
Western intelligence agencies believe Moscow is actively looking for new ways to test the NATO alliance. Experts warn that Russia could target three Baltic nations. Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania sit on the frontline.
The threat does not necessarily involve tanks. Observers suggest the Kremlin might rely on hybrid warfare tactics to quietly destabilise the region.
According to Ziare.com and GIS Reports Online, a key vulnerability lies in the large Russian-speaking minorities living in these countries. Moscow claims it has a right to defend ethnic Russians wherever they reside.
Demographics and borders
Demographics vary sharply across the three Baltic states. Lithuania has a relatively small Russian minority, keeping the issue largely out of mainstream politics.
Estonia and Latvia face a different reality. Since the Soviet collapse, large segments of their populations remain ethnically Russian. These groups make up roughly 20 percent of residents in Estonia and 25 percent in Latvia.
Many of these individuals hold no official citizenship. In Latvia, ethnic Russians form a majority in Daugavpils. That is the nation’s second-largest city.
Different types of threats
Geography plays a massive role in how each nation prepares for trouble. Lithuania borders the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and the allied state of Belarus.
Estonia shares a lengthy border with Russia, but much of it consists of lakes and marshes. A ground assault there would be difficult. Latvia, however, shares long land borders with both Russia and Belarus, leaving it highly exposed.
A full-scale military invasion seems unlikely right now. “Today, Russia does not have the military capacity to do this,” Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics said during the 2026 NATO summit in Ankara.
Testing the waters
Analysts expect a steady increase in deniable operations rather than a direct assault. The goal is to cause chaos without triggering a military response.
The strategy involves a mix of online propaganda and physical sabotage. Recent incidents included mysterious drone flights over airports and unexplained damage to pumping stations.
Latvia and Estonia have already experienced suspected sabotage against underwater cables connecting them to Scandinavia. As these incidents multiply, Baltic leaders are working urgently to map out their vulnerabilities.
Sources: Ziare.com, GIS Reports Online
