Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The Russian military command is reportedly asking Putin for an additional 800,000 troops.
After months of heavy pressure, Ukrainian troops have successfully checked Russian advances across several key sectors of the front line.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in its September 12 update on the war that Ukrainian counterattacks have effectively wiped out Russia’s net territorial gains since March 2026.
This marks the first sustained shift in momentum since Ukraine’s Kursk offensive in August 2024.
In the north near Kupiansk, defenders reclaimed lost positions inside the city and beat back repeated Russian attacks. Flattening a dangerous Russian bulge near Lyman has also helped the Ukrainian forces halt a Russian plan to encircle the Fortress Belt near Donetsk.
Crushing Russian plans
Russian commanders had originally planned to trap Ukrainian defenders inside Donetsk through a massive two-pronged pincer movement.
By wiping out the northern salient above Lyman, Ukrainian soldiers shattered that strategy. ISW notes that Moscow will now have to completely redesign its campaign plans for both flanks of the region.
Russia continues to make small, hard-won gains near Kostiantynivka and east of Kramatorsk. Yet holding those positions costs heavily. Russian troops must expend vast resources just to keep moving forward.
Russian military bloggers have publicly admitted that their forces were pushed back toward the Zherebets River. Some report that Ukrainian troops have already crossed to the eastern bank.
A costly stalemate
To make up for heavy losses, Russian commanders are reportedly asking President Vladimir Putin to order a massive new mobilization of up to 800,000 troops. The Kremlin has repeatedly denied any plans for a new mobilization, but analysts and intelligence suggest that something might happen after the upcoming Russian elections for the Duma.
Whether more recruits can tip the scales remains uncertain. Ukraine currently holds major tactical advantages in drone operations and infantry integration.
Moscow’s latest deadline for capturing the rest of Donetsk, and thus the highly contested Donbas Region, is said to be by the end of this year, but at the current rate of advance, the Russian forces will not be able to seize the rest of Donetsk before late 2032, the ISW notes.
