Kathrine Frich
Why would the Kremlin release wildly inaccurate numbers?
When leaders discuss a fierce conflict, they often put the best possible spin on the situation.
Sometimes they stretch the truth to keep morale high.
But occasionally, official numbers are so disconnected from reality that independent experts are left completely baffled.
A massive gap
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently shared some extremely confident numbers. He told the Valdai Discussion Club on October 1 that his military had a highly successful September.
According to the Russian leader cited by United24Media, his troops took control of 1,301 square kilometers of Ukrainian land. He claimed this was roughly two and a half times more territory than they secured in previous months.
But analysts looking at the exact same battlefields see a completely different reality. The Institute for the Study of War reviewed all the geolocated data from September. They found that Russian forces actually went backwards.
Going the wrong way
The American research group reported that Russia lost more ground than it gained. While Moscow’s troops took around 175 square kilometers in September, Ukrainian forces reclaimed over 256 square kilometers.
That leaves Russia with a net loss of nearly 81 square kilometers.
The researchers were remarkably blunt in their final assessment of the Kremlin’s math. The institute stated that Putin’s claims are so removed from the visible facts that they “border on hallucinations.”
Hiding the bad news
Why would the Kremlin release wildly inaccurate numbers?
The think tank suggested Moscow is running a deliberate information campaign to make its army look unstoppable. But there is another possibility behind the bizarre statistics.
The institute noted that Russian military commanders have a long history of hiding their setbacks. Generals might simply be lying to their boss to cover up front-line failures.
A very long timeline
Putin also promised a rapid victory in the disputed Donetsk region. He suggested his troops will capture the remaining land much faster than anyone in Europe expects.
Moscow wants it all done by the end of 2026.
The institute ran the numbers on the current slow pace of advance and reached a very different conclusion. They estimate the campaign will take more than six years, pushing the real finish line to October 2032.
