Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
A look back at previous talks does not give any reason to be optimistic.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius expects very little from the diplomatic summit taking shape in Abu Dhabi. Standing alongside British Defense Secretary Wes Streeting in Berlin, Pistorius cast sharp doubt on the planned talks between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine.
History justifies his skepticism. According to German broadcaster ntv, Pistorius pointed out that twelve months of backchannel talks produced nothing on the ground. Instead, every pause in dialogue was followed by heavier Russian strikes against Ukrainian targets.
Lasting stability cannot be decided by outsiders alone. To ensure any future agreement survives, Pistorius insisted that European powers must sit directly at the negotiating table, rather than watching from afar. Streeting agreed, making it clear that Ukraine itself must guide every decision.
Kremlin cautious about setting a date
Last week The Kyiv Independent cited Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov as telling Russian journalists that Moscow refuses to rush into scheduling. “We haven’t sent any signals yet,” Ushakov said, noting that any session would take place “after Nov. 4”.
The Kremlin maintains that military momentum comes first. “That, too, will depend on the situation on the battlefield and the overall situation,” Ushakov explained.
Fighting still rages across eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, where Moscow demands that Kyiv surrender land Russian troops have failed to seize by force.
Behind the scenes, Moscow’s roster remains unfinished, though Ushakov confirmed that “the core group is in place”. He also made it clear that Moscow rejects any European attendance.
“There is absolutely no talk of that at this point,” Ushakov said.
Scramble for influence
Behind the scenes, regional partners have already stepped into the void. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed that the heads of Finland and Norway carried Kyiv’s positions straight to Vladimir Putin ahead of the scheduled November talks.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre coordinated the strategy with Zelenskyy before dialing Moscow. The phone calls moved fast. Minutes after wrapping up their talk with the Russian leader, both Nordic heads contacted Kyiv to deliver Putin’s reaction.
Still, European capitals remain deeply unsettled. Past attempts at peace collapsed into bitter stalemates, leaving Ukrainian power plants and civilian neighborhoods vulnerable to renewed bombardments. The pattern is painfully familiar.
Now, anxiety is mounting that Washington and Moscow might cut a deal alone. European leaders hate that prospect. Prompted by the threat of being sidelined, several governments are weighing a single envoy to face Putin directly, with Czech President Petr Pavel urging swift action and Stubb emerging as a top contender.
