Kathrine Frich
An intercepted Russian plan was shared with European allies.
Flipping a light switch is something most people do without a second thought.
Yet when bitter winter weather rolls in, keeping the heat running and the grid stable becomes a matter of survival.
Now, a calculated military plan threatens to create energy risks that reach far beyond a single border.
Choking the nuclear grid
Russia has stepped up its winter campaign against the Ukrainian energy network. According to ZN.UA and United24 Media, intelligence reports from early October point to a multi-stage blueprint from Moscow designed to cripple power generation across the country.
An intercepted Russian plan shared with European allies shows the strikes would first sever cross-border lines linking Ukraine to Europe’s electricity grid,
United24 Media reported. From there, attacks would target hydroelectric plants and the high-voltage substations that connect the Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and South Ukraine nuclear facilities to everyday consumers.
Russian forces avoid bombing nuclear reactors directly because a strike could unleash radiation across Ukraine, Europe, and Russia itself.
Instead, the intercepted document cited by United24 Media outlines launching up to 1,000 missiles, drones, and guided bombs at the surrounding cables and switchyards.
Because nuclear energy supplies up to 70 percent of Ukraine’s electricity during peak hours, cutting those plants off would wipe out around 15 gigawatts of capacity, with Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa listed as top targets.
Forced to zero
Ukraine has already seen how quickly strikes on substations can rattle atomic facilities. Back on November 23, 2022, simultaneous attacks near three nuclear plants knocked out over 7 gigawatts of power and split the national grid into isolated islands for 14 hours, according to United24 Media.
Independent expert Olha Kosharna noted via ZN.UA that engineers and intelligence teams have since built strict protocols to handle incoming barrages.
Still, losing substation connections forces operators to power down the reactors, explained Hryhorii Plachkov, who previously led the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate.
“When there is no connection to substations, it is necessary to reduce the power of energy units or bring them into a state of hot or cold shutdown. This is considered a design mode, not an emergency mode,” Plachkov said, as reported by ZN.UA.
Backup diesel generators installed after the Fukushima disaster keep cooling systems running, though restarting reactors takes precious time while crews fix bombed equipment.
“This situation is also not a good operating mode for nuclear units. But this does not threaten to put them out of order. Protection will trigger, nuclear power plants will automatically ‘sit at zero,’ that is how they are designed,” Plachkov explained to ZN.UA
