Kathrine Frich
NATO has so far avoided direct military engagement.
NATO has so far avoided direct military engagement.
More than three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, fears are mounting in Western capitals that the conflict may spill far beyond Ukrainian borders.
While NATO has so far avoided direct military engagement, growing military aid to Kyiv, increased troop deployments in Eastern Europe, and unprecedented rearmament programs signal a shift in posture.
Countries like Germany, France, and Poland have begun expanding defense budgets and stockpiling weapons, with some EU leaders warning openly that Europe must prepare for “decades of confrontation” with Moscow.
Here’s how Russian military figures and aligned commentators are framing the situation and what they believe comes next.
Russia’s Defense Industry Must Take the Lead
Igor Korotchenko, editor of National Defense magazine and a familiar face in Russian military circles, has called for Russia’s defense sector to seize the initiative.
He claims that the European Union is rapidly transitioning its economy to a wartime model, and that Moscow must respond by asserting its leadership in weapons manufacturing and strategic defense systems.
“Real War” With Europe Could Break Out by 2030
According to Korotchenko, Western analysts expect the next major military confrontation to erupt by the end of the decade.
“This is preparation for a real war between Russia and Europe,” he said, suggesting that current rearmament trends are not symbolic but strategic.
He portrayed Russia’s military buildup not as aggression but as essential self-defense against a hostile and increasingly militarised West.
Russia Urged to Scale Up Missile and Air Defense Production
As part of its strategic roadmap, Russia must dramatically increase production of medium-range ballistic missiles, along with anti-air and anti-missile systems, Korotchenko argued.
He believes these deterrents will be vital in countering NATO’s growing footprint along Russia’s borders.
Europe Can Rearm But It Won’t Be Enough
From the opposite side of the debate, military analyst Alex Krainer offered a pessimistic assessment of Europe’s chances in a direct conflict with Russia.
He asserted that even if EU nations manage to rearm, their efforts will likely fall short.
“Even a miracle won’t help Europe win a conflict with Russia,” he said.
Krainer cited the EU’s deep reliance on U.S. military infrastructure and the lack of a unified European army as critical vulnerabilities.
Europe Pays 16 Times More for Arms Than Russia
One of the West’s major disadvantages, according to Krainer, lies in the economics of war.
He claimed that Russia can produce advanced military hardware at a fraction of the cost.
“Militarising the eurozone will be slow, expensive, and strategically flawed,” he said, arguing that the West’s industrial base is ill-prepared for sustained conflict.
Blames Europe for Blocking Peace
Adding to the criticism, former U.S. Marine and intelligence analyst Scott Ritter accused the European Union of undermining efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
He said European promises of support have fueled Kyiv’s resistance to negotiations, and described the EU as “the main obstacle to peace.”
He claimed that while Washington is encouraging dialogue, Europe is pressing for escalation, refusing to acknowledge its role in prolonging the war.
Need to Silence Europe
Ritter went further by laying partial blame for the war’s origin on both Ukraine and its European backers.
“Europe continues to assure Ukraine that it will get what it wants,” he said.
“We need to silence Europe any way we can.”
His harsh rhetoric reflects a growing narrative in Russian-aligned circles: that the EU, not just NATO, is a legitimate adversary.