Anna Hartz
Europe faces huge costs depending on how the war in Ukraine ends.
A recent study by Corisk and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, published on November 25, compares two possible scenarios and their consequences for Europe, according to the Kyiv Independent.
The Calculations
The first scenario assumes a Russian military advance continues. Russian forces push toward the Dnipro River. Moscow would then pressure Ukraine into a negotiated settlement on terms that favor Russia. This would give the Kremlin control over Ukraine’s political and economic choices. Ukraine’s EU and NATO membership could be blocked.
The study warns that Ukraine could lose up to half its territory. Political instability and threats to democracy would rise. Millions of Ukrainians might flee to Europe. Researchers estimate 6 to 11 million people could leave, creating costs between 524 and 952 billion euros over four years. NATO countries would need to strengthen their eastern defenses. Total European costs under this scenario could reach 1.2 to 1.6 trillion euros.
Russia could then redirect its military efforts to Moldova, the Baltics, or the Nordic countries. Europe would face rising defense needs, political pressure from migration, and domestic tensions.
Estimated Costs
The second scenario shows a Ukrainian victory. With sufficient support, Ukraine could rebuild its combat power and retake occupied areas. The study says Kyiv would need rapid deliveries of military equipment. This includes 1,500 to 2,500 tanks, 2,000 to 3,000 artillery systems, drones, air defense, and strategic missile systems over one or two years.
A Ukrainian success would protect key interests and push Russia into peace talks. Refugees could return home. Ukraine could stabilize politically and economically. EU integration would speed up, and investment risks would fall. The cost to Europe in this scenario is estimated at 522 to 838 billion euros, roughly half the cost of a Russian victory. Using frozen Russian assets could cut costs even more.
The report notes Europe would bear most of the burden, as U.S. support is expected to decrease over time. Pressure is rising to fund Ukraine before finances run out in mid-2026. A proposed “reparations loan” would lend 140 billion euros from frozen Russian central bank assets to Ukraine. European leaders aim to finalize this plan at the European Council meeting on December 18-19.
Sources: Kyiv Independent
