Kathrine Frich
A video showing an intercontinental ballistic missile blowing apart only seconds after launch is now prompting questions about one of Russia’s flagship nuclear projects.
Russia has spent years promoting its next generation of strategic weapons as symbols of revived military strength.
Yet behind the triumphant language, a pattern of technical failures is beginning to undermine the narrative.
The latest test gone wrong has again cast a shadow over Vladimir Putin’s claims of unstoppable missile power.
Sudden failure
Local media in Russia reported an explosion near Yasny in the Orenburg region on November 28.
According to multiple defense specialists, the blast came from a missile launched at the Dombarovski base close to the Kazakh border.
The projectile reportedly rose only seven seconds before falling back to the ground and exploding.
Footage of the failed launch has circulated widely on military monitoring sites. Several experts said the missile was “likely” the RS 28 Sarmat, also known as Satan 2, the same system that destroyed its own test silo at Plesetsk in 2024.
If confirmed, this would be the fifth failure out of six attempts for a weapon presented by Russia as the future backbone of its nuclear deterrent.
Flagship under question
Researcher Etienne Marcuz from the Foundation for Strategic Research told 20 Minutes that Russian nuclear capability remains strong overall.
He did however note that repeated failures raise doubts about the Sarmat’s real performance.
The missile is designed to replace the R36 M2 system, a Soviet era weapon whose last units were assembled in 1988 in Ukraine.
After 2014, cooperation on maintenance between the two countries ended, forcing Russia to manage upkeep alone while trying to introduce a new model.
The Sarmat is intended to carry as many as ten nuclear warheads across roughly 18,000 kilometers.
Its development began in the late 2000s, with one successful test announced in April 2022. Since then, failures have mounted.
Why so many setbacks
Marcuz noted that failures are not unusual during testing, but the scale of the difficulties is striking.
He compared the situation to France’s M51 missile, which has failed only once out of about ten launches.
He also pointed out that the United States is encountering challenges with its own Sentinel program.
According to him, maintaining expertise in ballistic missile design is complex, particularly when much of the original technology dates back to the Soviet era.
Deterrent still large
Data from SIPRI shows that Russia had 5,459 nuclear warheads as of January 1, with 1,718 deployed.
The country still possesses a broad range of delivery systems, including the Sineva and Bulava submarine launched missiles, the Yars and Oreshnik land based missiles, and the Kinzhal air launched missile.
Yet Marcuz said reliability concerns extend beyond the Sarmat, as Russia has also encountered problems with the Bulava.
New weapons, old problems
Alongside these systems, Russia has unveiled new generation weapons such as the Burevestnik missile and the nuclear armed Poseidon underwater drone.
Marcuz said their numbers remain extremely limited and serve more as a signal than a practical shift in the balance of deterrence.
He stressed that Russia’s nuclear arsenal remains capable of devastating power, but that the country may struggle to meet its declared goals of maintaining a large, modern and fully dependable missile force.
Next test planned
According to Marcuz, Russia intends to conduct another missile launch from Plesetsk by December 7.
It is not yet known whether it will be a standard Yars missile or a new variant.
The timing, coming so soon after a failed launch, suggests Moscow may be eager to reassure itself and its audience.
As he concluded, Russia “cannot afford to fail this time.”
Sources: 20 Minutes, FRS, SIPRI.
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