Asger Risom
Apple is closing out 2025 with a blockbuster performance, thanks largely to enormous global demand for the iPhone 17.
Apple is closing out 2025 with a blockbuster performance, thanks largely to enormous global demand for the iPhone 17. But analysts warn that after this record-setting year, both Apple and the wider smartphone industry are headed for trouble.
A record year driven by iPhone 17
According to a new IDC report, global smartphone shipments are on track to grow 1.5% this year to 1.25 billion units — a jump attributed almost entirely to Apple’s “accelerated performance” in the holiday quarter.
iPhone shipments are expected to rise 6.1% in 2025, meaning Apple should ship more than 247 million units, its strongest year ever. IDC’s Nabila Popal called the momentum “phenomenal,” pointing to surging demand in China, the U.S., and Western Europe.
In China — Apple’s most important market — the iPhone 17 has been a standout hit. Apple captured more than 20% of sales in both October and November, prompting IDC to sharply revise its quarterly forecast upward. That surge turns what was expected to be a full-year decline in China into 3% growth instead.
Overall, Apple is on pace for a record $261 billion in iPhone revenue this calendar year.
A smaller iPhone lineup means a drop in sales next year
IDC warns that 2026 won’t look anything like 2025. Two major factors — memory shortages and a shift in Apple’s product strategy — are expected to weigh heavily on sales.
Apple does not plan to release a standard iPhone 18 model next September, pushing that device to 2027. Instead, the 2026 lineup is expected to consist of only three phones:
- iPhone 18 Pro
- iPhone 18 Pro Max
- iPhone Fold
With no entry-level flagship to anchor the lineup, Apple’s iPhone shipments are expected to fall 4.2% in 2026.
IDC projects growth returning in 2027, when the delayed base model finally arrives.
Memory shortages will push smartphone prices higher in 2026
It’s not just Apple facing headwinds. IDC expects global smartphone shipments to shrink 0.9% next year as a severe memory-chip shortage pushes costs upward.
Low- and mid-range Android phones will be hit hardest, but even major brands aren’t immune. Recent reports from Korea suggest Samsung is struggling to secure enough RAM, with its chip division prioritizing lucrative AI-sector customers over long-term deals for Samsung’s own mobile business. That could mean higher prices for some Galaxy S26 models launching early next year.
Despite the shrinking market, IDC expects record-high average selling prices. The global smartphone ASP is projected to climb to $465 in 2026, helping the overall market reach $578.9 billion, the highest value ever recorded.
Smartphone sales should rebound in 2027, growing about 3%.
Sources: IDC
