Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
He thinks, Russia underestimated Ukraine, and overestimated their own abilities.
Russia’s former army chief has broken ranks, offering a rare public critique of the invasion of Ukraine as pressure on wartime dissent continues to escalate.
His remarks, carried by Russian outlet RBC, cited by Kyiv Independent, have drawn attention for their unusually direct tone.
They come as independent observers note a tightening crackdown on domestic criticism since 2022.
Strategy questioned
In the Nov. 27 interview, former Ground Forces commander Vladimir Chirkin argued that Moscow entered the full-scale war without adequate preparation.
He said Russia had “once again” underestimated Ukraine while placing misplaced confidence in its own forces.
According to Kyiv Independent, Chirkin referenced early assumptions that Kyiv could be taken within days, saying Russia had been influenced by its rapid 2008 campaign in Georgia.
That precedent, he suggested, created unrealistic expectations that “did not turn out that way.”
He added that the first weeks of fighting forced a “serious harsh lesson,” describing efforts by Russia’s former defense minister to characterize early retreats as a “gesture of goodwill.”
Intelligence failures
Chirkin placed responsibility for the withdrawal from Kyiv Oblast on what he called failures across Russia’s intelligence agencies.
According to RBC’s reporting, he said decision-makers relied on deeply flawed assessments claiming that “70% of the Ukrainian population is with us and 30% is against us.”
Ukrainian political journalist Denys Kazansky commented on X on Dec. 2 that such blunt criticism from a former senior commander had not previously appeared at this level.
Kazansky wrote that Chirkin had “acknowledged the failure of the special military operation” and argued that President Vladimir Putin entered the conflict based on misjudgments that produced “heavy losses.”
Who is Vladimir Chirkin?
Colonel General Vladimir Valentinovich Chirkin was the commander of the Russian Ground Forces from 26 April 2012 – 2 December 2013.
In December 2013, Chirkin was removed as the commander of the Russian Ground Forces by Vladimir Putin for bribery charges. Subsequently (August 2015), he was sentenced to five years in a labor colony.
He was also stripped of his military rank of “colonel-general” and most of his state awards.
In December 2015, this sentence was cancelled by a higher court.
Silencing dissent
Public criticism of the invasion remains a criminal offense in Russia, where penalties can stretch to 15 years in prison.
According to the Kyiv Independent’s account of the RBC interview and subsequent reactions, Chirkin’s remarks stand out against that backdrop.
Since the start of the full-scale war, Russian authorities have moved aggressively to restrict independent reporting.
Dozens of media organizations and civil society groups have been labeled “foreign agents” or “undesirable,” designations that effectively bar them from operating.
Amnesty International has documented the scope of these measures, reporting that more than 21,000 people were sanctioned in 2022 for statements deemed critical of the war or for sharing information the state classifies as false.
Sources: Kyiv Independent, RBC, Amnesty International
