Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The continued violations of NATO airspace may prompt NATO to use force.
Czech President Petr Pavel told the Sunday Times that repeated Russian violations of NATO airspace may eventually require direct military action.
He argued that Russia would not tolerate similar behavior and that Europe must show equal resolve. Pavel described the flights as intentional tests aimed at gauging Western reactions and assessing defense readiness.
He has cautioned about this pattern before. In a September interview with Czech Television, Pavel urged NATO members to remain unified and firm, warning that concessions would encourage further aggression. He said allies must be prepared to defend their airspace if Moscow persists.
Reports from Poland and Romania illustrate the strain. Both countries have documented incidents of missiles or drones crossing into NATO territory during large-scale Russian attacks on Ukraine, prompting heightened alerts and, in Romania’s case, authorization to shoot down incoming drones.
Numerous violations during the war
Since the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the airspace of several European nations has been violated — both by Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine.
Starting in September 2025, there have been at least 15 violations committed by Russia and Belarus, according to authorities in the affected countries.
Five violations have been committed by unknown forces, meaning authorities have not found sufficient evidence to identify a single perpetrator.
Security beyond the war
Pavel told the Sunday Times that Europe will ultimately need a new security framework with Moscow once a peace deal is secured that fully protects Ukraine’s sovereignty.
He likened the concept to a modernized version of the Helsinki Accords, built on mutual recognition of borders and enforceable limits on Russian behavior.
Any negotiation, he said, must involve balanced partners rather than a settlement dictated by the Kremlin. Such an arrangement, in his view, would restore some of the stability last seen in the late 1970s.
Sources: Sunday Times, Czech Television, statements from Polish and Romanian authorities, Danish, French, Dutch, Lithuanian, Estonian, Romanian. Moldovan news outlets
